NBA games

GS @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
93–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS1523213493
MEM37324035144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MEM
8% 92%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski 25 21 4 6
Andrew Wiggins S 21 19 1 0
Jonathan Kuminga 28 11 4 2
Kyle Anderson 20 11 3 3
Buddy Hield 20 9 4 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 20 7 7 2
Dennis Schroder S 22 5 2 5
Gary Payton II 5 3 1 0
Lindy Waters III 17 3 2 1
Stephen Curry S 24 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama 25 21 14 4
Jake LaRavia 24 19 6 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 20 17 6 5
Desmond Bane S 24 15 4 7
Luke Kennard 24 15 2 1
Jaylen Wells S 20 13 4 1
Ja Morant S 17 9 3 3
Brandon Clarke 24 8 10 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 16 8 0 5
Zach Edey S 24 8 8 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointer (Zach Edey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
11%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Dennis Schroder GS
10%
5 Brandon Clarke MEM
10%
6 Stephen Curry GS
9%
7 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
8 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
9 Kevon Looney GS
8%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
31%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 24.5 4.8 7.9
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.7 4.9 6.5
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.7 6.4 2.2
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 20.5 4.7 3.1
5 Dennis Schroder GS 20.1 3.6 6.9
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 17.9 5.0 2.3
7 Desmond Bane MEM 14.0 5.3 5.3
8 Santi Aldama MEM 13.7 6.8 2.3
9 Zach Edey MEM 12.6 8.7 1.6
10 Draymond Green GS 11.3 6.8 5.6
11 Buddy Hield GS 10.7 3.0 1.5
12 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.2 3.2 1.8
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 9.2 6.6 1.4
14 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.1 4.2 3.1
15 Jake LaRavia MEM 7.7 3.4 2.6
16 Luke Kennard MEM 6.8 2.3 2.1
17 Lindy Waters III GS 6.4 3.2 1.4
18 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.4 2.9 3.6
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.5 6.4 1.6
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.2 4.0 1.2
21 Gary Payton II GS 4.8 3.9 1.1
22 Cam Spencer MEM 4.3 1.5 1.6
23 Kyle Anderson GS 3.3 1.8 1.0
24 John Konchar MEM 2.5 2.1 0.7
25 Gui Santos GS 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.