NBA games

NO @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
113–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO25272734113
HOU39273334133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home HOU
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 36 28 1 3
Herbert Jones S 32 20 2 2
CJ McCollum S 34 18 5 6
Dejounte Murray S 31 14 5 8
Yves Missi S 33 11 11 1
Brandon Boston 21 7 3 3
Jordan Hawkins 17 5 1 0
Javonte Green 17 4 3 0
Antonio Reeves 2 3 0 0
Trey Jemison III 15 3 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 32 34 6 3
Dillon Brooks S 34 26 7 2
Alperen Sengun S 34 23 9 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 15 2 5
Fred VanVleet S 35 13 2 9
Aaron Holiday 16 10 3 1
Cam Whitmore 3 4 1 0
Amen Thompson 24 4 4 5
Reed Sheppard 15 2 3 0
Steven Adams 10 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Yves Missi · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Yves Missi makes finger roll layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Jalen Green HOU
10%
4 Dejounte Murray NO
9%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Yves Missi NO
8%
8 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
32%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 CJ McCollum NO 22.4 4.1 3.7
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.8 11.0 6.6
3 Jalen Green HOU 19.9 4.5 3.2
4 Dejounte Murray NO 18.6 6.4 6.5
5 Trey Murphy III NO 17.9 4.4 2.8
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.2 4.1 6.1
7 Amen Thompson HOU 15.6 8.6 2.4
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.2 4.6 2.3
9 Yves Missi NO 12.2 10.4 0.9
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.1 6.6 1.5
11 Jose Alvarado NO 11.8 2.7 4.3
12 Brandon Boston NO 11.2 2.9 1.8
13 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.1 2.9 1.4
14 Herbert Jones NO 10.6 3.7 2.4
15 Javonte Green NO 5.9 3.0 0.9
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.8 4.8 1.2
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 4.0 1.4 0.7
18 Antonio Reeves NO 3.9 1.1 0.5
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.6 1.0 1.0
20 Jock Landale HOU 3.1 2.7 0.8
21 Steven Adams HOU 3.0 3.3 0.8
22 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.0 1.0 0.8
23 Jeff Green HOU 2.6 1.0 0.5
24 Trey Jemison III NO 2.5 2.1 0.4
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.4 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.