NBA games

BKN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
101–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN24281831101
TOR2422301894

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home TOR
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 34 33 10 6
Ben Simmons S 32 12 5 7
Shake Milton 29 12 3 2
Noah Clowney 37 11 9 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 32 8 5 1
Nic Claxton S 11 7 5 0
Tyrese Martin 15 7 4 0
Jalen Wilson 27 6 2 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 10 5 9 0
Keon Johnson S 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ochai Agbaji S 36 20 5 1
Gradey Dick S 33 19 6 2
Scottie Barnes S 36 16 3 6
Kelly Olynyk 18 8 6 5
Jonathan Mogbo S 30 8 6 4
Jamison Battle 18 8 0 1
Ja'Kobe Walter S 24 7 4 2
Jamal Shead 26 5 1 4
Chris Boucher 19 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
3 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
5 Bruno Fernando TOR
8%
6 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
8 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
8%
9 Keon Johnson BKN
7%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
20%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 25.8 7.2 6.5
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 8.3 8.1
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 19.9 4.2 3.4
4 Gradey Dick TOR 16.3 4.1 2.0
5 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 11.0 3.6 1.6
6 Nic Claxton BKN 11.0 7.2 1.8
7 Shake Milton BKN 10.9 2.9 2.6
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.7 3.5 1.8
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.6 3.3 1.7
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.8 3.1 1.8
11 Keon Johnson BKN 8.7 3.0 1.6
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 7.8 3.3 1.2
13 Chris Boucher TOR 7.6 4.7 0.9
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.3 3.4 1.2
15 Noah Clowney BKN 7.2 2.9 1.0
16 Ben Simmons BKN 7.1 5.0 5.6
17 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.6 4.5 2.1
18 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.3 3.3 1.6
19 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.6 2.2 1.1
20 Jamal Shead TOR 4.6 1.3 2.1
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.3 1.3 0.8
22 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.1 2.7 1.0
23 Reece Beekman BKN 2.7 1.1 0.9
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.