NBA games

CHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
117–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI21332835117
BOS25322922108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home BOS
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 33 36 6 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 38 17 8 4
Nikola Vucevic S 33 16 14 4
Patrick Williams S 23 14 2 1
Coby White S 32 12 6 3
Julian Phillips 19 10 5 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 19 9 3 1
Lonzo Ball 18 3 3 3
Jalen Smith 15 0 6 1
Matas Buzelis 10 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 31 10 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 36 20 8 0
Jaylen Brown S 36 19 3 4
Derrick White S 36 16 8 4
Payton Pritchard 30 14 6 3
Jrue Holiday S 29 6 1 4
Al Horford 22 2 5 2
Jaden Springer 13 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Patrick Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Patrick Williams makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
4 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
7 Al Horford BOS
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Coby White CHI
7%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
44%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.0 10.7 5.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.9 5.2 5.6
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.3 9.5 3.7
4 Zach LaVine CHI 21.6 3.8 4.2
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.9 5.2 4.2
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.5 7.1 2.2
7 Coby White CHI 16.3 3.9 4.6
8 Derrick White BOS 16.1 4.9 5.9
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.7 3.9 5.0
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.0 4.4 4.0
11 Patrick Williams CHI 10.6 4.3 2.3
12 Al Horford BOS 10.0 4.7 1.9
13 Sam Hauser BOS 9.1 3.2 1.3
14 Matas Buzelis CHI 8.0 3.9 1.0
15 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 8.0 2.2 1.5
16 Jalen Smith CHI 7.7 5.7 0.8
17 Lonzo Ball CHI 5.5 2.9 3.2
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 5.6 1.4
19 Neemias Queta BOS 5.2 4.6 0.9
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.9 2.0 0.6
21 Torrey Craig CHI 3.5 1.4 0.4
22 Jaden Springer BOS 2.4 1.0 0.8
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.2 1.2 0.5
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.9 1.6 0.4
25 Jevon Carter CHI 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.