NBA games

CHA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
114–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA30282828114
WSH29312736123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home WSH
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 34 34 4 13
Miles Bridges S 32 16 8 3
Mark Williams S 19 16 8 1
Cody Martin 26 14 2 1
Seth Curry S 32 8 4 3
Nick Richards 17 8 7 1
Josh Green S 24 5 2 2
Moussa Diabate 12 4 7 2
Vasilije Micic 16 4 3 1
Tidjane Salaun 16 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 34 27 3 4
Malcolm Brogdon 27 25 1 6
Alex Sarr S 33 19 9 5
Justin Champagnie S 27 14 8 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 14 7 5
Corey Kispert 19 13 4 2
Jonas Valanciunas 15 6 8 4
Kyshawn George 17 3 3 1
Bub Carrington S 34 2 9 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes alley oop dunk shot (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
14%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
4 Mark Williams CHA
10%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
7 Josh Green CHA
9%
8 Justin Champagnie WSH
9%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
19%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 29.9 5.5 9.5
2 Jordan Poole WSH 19.7 3.2 6.2
3 Miles Bridges CHA 17.7 6.2 3.9
4 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 13.3 4.1 2.5
5 Nick Richards CHA 12.7 10.1 1.8
6 Alex Sarr WSH 12.7 6.7 1.6
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.2 4.7 3.9
8 Vasilije Micic CHA 11.1 3.2 5.3
9 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.4 7.0 1.8
10 Josh Green CHA 10.2 3.1 1.9
11 Cody Martin CHA 9.9 5.4 2.7
12 Corey Kispert WSH 9.8 3.3 1.4
13 Bub Carrington WSH 9.3 4.1 2.7
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.0 5.3 1.2
15 Isaiah Wong CHA 8.1 2.9 1.9
16 Mark Williams CHA 7.9 5.4 1.3
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.7 3.9 1.3
18 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.0 2.3 1.0
19 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.9 7.5 1.3
20 Jared Butler WSH 5.9 1.2 2.5
21 Kyshawn George WSH 5.5 2.9 2.1
22 Seth Curry CHA 3.9 1.2 0.5
23 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.9 2.6 0.4
24 Johnny Davis WSH 3.2 1.7 0.6
25 Taj Gibson CHA 2.6 2.6 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.6 1.4 0.4
27 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.5 2.0 0.3
28 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.8 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.