NBA games

OKC @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
105–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29361723105
ORL2818282599

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home ORL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 35 4 6
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 12 12 4
Aaron Wiggins 31 11 2 1
Jalen Williams S 36 11 1 7
Alex Caruso 18 11 3 1
Isaiah Joe 18 7 2 0
Kenrich Williams 11 6 2 1
Ajay Mitchell 9 5 1 2
Cason Wallace S 21 5 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 26 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black 31 23 1 3
Tristan da Silva S 37 15 3 1
Goga Bitadze S 27 15 10 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 11 1 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 10 13 4
Moritz Wagner 19 10 0 2
Jalen Suggs S 17 9 5 4
Cole Anthony 13 3 3 2
Jonathan Isaac 17 3 3 0
Jett Howard 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
16%
2 Jalen Suggs ORL
14%
3 Goga Bitadze ORL
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
28%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.1 5.4 6.2
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.0 5.1 4.8
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 19.3 4.1 4.4
4 Moritz Wagner ORL 13.7 6.6 1.9
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.6 11.0 3.8
6 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.4 8.6 2.1
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.5 2.3 1.7
8 Cason Wallace OKC 8.7 4.1 2.2
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.5 5.4 1.7
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.5 2.7 1.0
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.3 2.3 1.4
12 Alex Caruso OKC 7.2 2.9 1.7
13 Anthony Black ORL 6.7 3.2 2.2
14 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 6.5 5.8 1.9
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.2 2.7 0.9
16 Cole Anthony ORL 5.7 1.9 2.0
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.8 0.9
18 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.4 1.5 1.2
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.9 4.3 0.5
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.5 2.0 0.8
21 Jett Howard ORL 3.4 1.2 0.5
22 Branden Carlson OKC 2.2 1.6 0.5
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 1.8 0.5 0.3
24 Cory Joseph ORL 1.6 0.8 0.6
25 Trevelin Queen ORL 1.6 0.6 0.3
26 Ousmane Dieng OKC 1.5 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.