NBA games

UTAH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
126–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH48193029126
DET19353233119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DET
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 36 30 6 7
Keyonte George S 33 28 4 3
Lauri Markkanen S 36 27 14 1
John Collins S 37 16 9 0
Walker Kessler S 35 6 12 4
Johnny Juzang 13 5 3 0
Brice Sensabaugh 12 5 5 2
Drew Eubanks 13 4 4 1
Jordan Clarkson 14 3 1 5
Micah Potter 11 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 33 4 7
Malik Beasley 35 26 2 4
Paul Reed 18 12 9 1
Ausar Thompson S 20 9 2 4
Jalen Duren S 26 8 7 2
Tobias Harris S 30 8 7 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 30 8 2 2
Simone Fontecchio 18 6 2 0
Marcus Sasser 12 5 1 4
Ronald Holland II 13 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tim Hardaway Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Tobias Harris DET
9%
3 John Collins UTAH
9%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
7 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
8 Jalen Duren DET
8%
9 Walker Kessler UTAH
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
40%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.9 7.2 10.2
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.1 5.8 2.6
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.9 3.7 4.5
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.4 2.8 4.1
5 John Collins UTAH 19.3 8.2 3.1
6 Keyonte George UTAH 18.6 4.3 6.8
7 Jaden Ivey DET 18.5 3.7 4.8
8 Malik Beasley DET 17.7 3.2 3.2
9 Tobias Harris DET 14.6 5.3 2.2
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 13.3 10.8 2.0
11 Jalen Duren DET 10.7 7.4 2.2
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.1 2.7 2.1
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.7 2.7 1.5
14 Marcus Sasser DET 8.3 1.4 2.6
15 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.8 2.7 1.6
16 Ausar Thompson DET 7.8 3.5 2.3
17 Ronald Holland II DET 7.8 3.0 1.5
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.4 2.5 1.3
19 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 5.9 1.5 1.2
20 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.1 3.0 1.2
21 Patty Mills UTAH 4.5 1.5 1.4
22 Paul Reed DET 4.4 2.0 0.9
23 Micah Potter UTAH 4.3 4.4 0.9
24 Drew Eubanks UTAH 3.9 3.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.