NBA games

NY @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
113–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY34262330113
TOR27342522108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home TOR
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 24 15 6
Mikal Bridges S 41 23 3 3
Jalen Brunson S 35 20 4 11
OG Anunoby S 41 14 4 3
Josh Hart S 32 10 4 3
Miles McBride 26 8 3 5
Precious Achiuwa 16 7 6 0
Cameron Payne 13 7 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 37 30 8 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 22 19 1 2
Scottie Barnes S 23 15 5 3
Jakob Poeltl S 33 10 12 4
Davion Mitchell 24 8 3 3
Ochai Agbaji S 32 7 5 4
Gradey Dick S 31 7 6 0
Kelly Olynyk 15 6 4 1
Jonathan Mogbo 23 6 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes 14-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
5 OG Anunoby NY
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
9 Bruno Fernando TOR
7%
10 Jericho Sims NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
40%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.6 3.2 8.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 25.5 6.8 5.6
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.9 12.9 3.9
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.7 9.4 8.6
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 18.1 11.2 2.8
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.9 3.3 3.6
7 OG Anunoby NY 17.3 4.7 2.1
8 Gradey Dick TOR 17.0 3.3 2.4
9 Josh Hart NY 15.6 7.4 4.9
10 Miles McBride NY 10.2 2.8 2.5
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.6 3.2 1.9
12 Precious Achiuwa NY 8.7 6.6 1.7
13 Cameron Payne NY 8.1 2.2 2.8
14 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.2 1.9 3.9
15 Chris Boucher TOR 7.2 4.0 0.6
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.6 4.1 1.6
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.0 3.1 1.5
18 Jamal Shead TOR 3.6 0.9 1.6
19 Jericho Sims NY 3.4 3.6 0.7
20 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.2 3.0 1.0
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 2.1 0.8
22 Tyler Kolek NY 3.1 1.3 0.8
23 Matt Ryan NY 2.0 0.6 0.3
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.9 1.1 0.4
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.7 0.9 0.3
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.