NBA games

POR @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
98–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2817292498
LAL22371830107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 19 6 3
Anfernee Simons S 31 14 1 4
Deandre Ayton S 35 14 19 1
Deni Avdija 23 13 4 2
Scoot Henderson 21 13 2 0
Toumani Camara S 31 8 6 0
Dalano Banton 15 6 1 3
Jabari Walker 12 4 3 0
Jerami Grant S 32 3 4 1
Bryce McGowens 3 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 32 30 11 1
D'Angelo Russell 34 28 5 14
Rui Hachimura S 39 23 5 2
Cam Reddish 26 6 0 4
Dalton Knecht S 22 6 8 1
Max Christie S 26 4 4 2
Gabe Vincent S 25 3 1 0
Quincy Olivari 8 3 0 0
Christian Koloko 16 2 6 1
Armel Traore 7 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:45 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
5 Toumani Camara POR
9%
6 Jerami Grant POR
9%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
9 Dalton Knecht LAL
7%
10 Quincy Olivari LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 24.7 11.4 5.3
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.2 3.8 3.5
3 Deni Avdija POR 16.5 6.5 3.9
4 Anfernee Simons POR 16.1 3.6 4.4
5 Deandre Ayton POR 15.7 8.9 1.8
6 Jerami Grant POR 14.0 3.8 3.4
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 13.6 3.4 5.2
8 Dalton Knecht LAL 13.5 4.4 1.7
9 Dalano Banton POR 12.6 3.7 3.5
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.3 5.0 2.0
11 Scoot Henderson POR 10.9 2.9 5.2
12 Toumani Camara POR 10.6 4.8 2.4
13 Max Christie LAL 8.6 2.9 1.8
14 Quincy Olivari LAL 8.4 3.2 1.4
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.4 1.9 1.5
16 Donovan Clingan POR 6.1 7.5 0.7
17 Kris Murray POR 5.7 2.4 0.8
18 Cam Reddish LAL 4.4 2.1 1.0
19 Rayan Rupert POR 3.9 1.9 1.0
20 Jabari Walker POR 3.8 3.6 1.1
21 Duop Reath POR 3.7 1.6 0.7
22 Armel Traore LAL 3.3 3.3 0.6
23 Bryce McGowens POR 2.7 1.3 0.6
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.5 1.1 0.6
25 Christian Koloko LAL 2.4 2.2 0.4
26 Bronny James LAL 2.3 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.