NBA games

UTAH @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
97–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH2322292397
SAC26364336141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SAC
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 34 25 5 6
John Collins S 23 19 7 3
Collin Sexton S 23 15 2 0
Brice Sensabaugh 17 9 1 2
Walker Kessler S 32 8 14 2
Lauri Markkanen S 25 8 2 4
Johnny Juzang 25 5 1 1
Drew Eubanks 10 5 1 0
Kyle Filipowski 10 3 1 0
Micah Potter 14 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Huerter 22 26 5 4
De'Aaron Fox S 31 21 4 9
Domantas Sabonis S 28 19 12 6
DeMar DeRozan S 29 18 1 4
Doug McDermott 8 18 0 0
Malik Monk S 27 16 2 3
Keegan Murray S 25 7 4 1
Jordan McLaughlin 8 6 1 1
Keon Ellis 16 5 3 5
Colby Jones 20 3 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 20-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
3 John Collins UTAH
10%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
8%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
7 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
9 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
10 Malik Monk SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
29%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.2 4.8 7.0
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.7 12.1 6.4
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.3 4.9 4.6
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.6 6.2 2.1
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.4 2.9 4.2
6 Malik Monk SAC 19.2 4.1 6.2
7 John Collins UTAH 18.7 8.8 2.7
8 Keyonte George UTAH 17.8 4.0 5.9
9 Keegan Murray SAC 12.9 7.0 1.8
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.0 10.8 1.6
11 Kevin Huerter SAC 8.9 3.1 1.8
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.5 2.5 1.5
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.0 2.1 1.8
14 Keon Ellis SAC 7.4 2.3 1.4
15 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.2 2.7 1.4
16 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.7 3.9 1.8
17 Micah Potter UTAH 6.2 5.5 1.3
18 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.6 1.9 4.0
19 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.2 4.2 1.3
20 Jae Crowder SAC 5.0 2.4 1.0
21 Isaiah Crawford SAC 3.8 2.0 0.8
22 Orlando Robinson SAC 3.8 1.9 1.2
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 1.3 0.7
24 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 3.4 1.5 1.3
25 Patty Mills UTAH 3.1 0.9 1.0
26 Colby Jones SAC 3.1 1.4 0.8
27 Alex Len SAC 3.0 1.9 0.8
28 Mason Jones SAC 2.3 1.3 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.