NBA games

HOU @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
117–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU30343122117
LAC28243123106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 36 31 4 1
Amen Thompson S 39 22 8 4
Dillon Brooks S 38 19 7 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 13 12 2
Aaron Holiday 19 11 1 3
Alperen Sengun S 36 11 10 6
Jae'Sean Tate 18 6 4 2
Steven Adams 10 4 4 0
Reed Sheppard 11 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bones Hyland 28 22 3 4
Ivica Zubac S 37 21 12 1
Kevin Porter Jr. S 37 19 2 6
Norman Powell S 35 17 4 4
Jordan Miller 32 12 6 2
Kris Dunn S 22 9 1 2
Kai Jones 11 4 1 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 12 2 0 0
Nicolas Batum 26 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Dunn · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Kris Dunn makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Jalen Green HOU
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 Norman Powell LAC
11%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
10%
7 Amir Coffey LAC
10%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
10 Amen Thompson HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
39%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.1 10.1 6.4
2 Norman Powell LAC 21.5 3.5 3.2
3 Jalen Green HOU 18.5 4.6 2.9
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.6 11.2 2.7
5 Amen Thompson HOU 12.6 7.8 1.9
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.3 3.8 2.1
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 10.9 6.1 1.2
8 Amir Coffey LAC 10.5 3.0 1.6
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.8 3.4 1.4
10 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.6 3.4 2.5
11 Jordan Miller LAC 7.9 2.7 1.5
12 Kris Dunn LAC 6.0 3.7 1.9
13 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.0 2.5 1.3
14 Bones Hyland LAC 4.8 1.6 1.0
15 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.5 1.6 0.9
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.2 1.3 0.9
17 Steven Adams HOU 3.2 3.1 1.1
18 Cam Christie LAC 3.0 1.5 0.5
19 Jock Landale HOU 2.4 2.5 0.7
20 Kai Jones LAC 2.3 1.8 0.5
21 Jeff Green HOU 1.9 0.8 0.3
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 1.8 1.5 0.4
23 Jack McVeigh HOU 1.7 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.