NBA games

MIN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
106–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN30283216106
GS21284421114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home GS
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 27 5 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 19 1 1
Julius Randle S 37 14 11 4
Mike Conley S 25 12 2 3
Naz Reid 21 10 6 2
Jaden McDaniels S 36 9 4 3
Donte DiVincenzo 18 8 1 2
Rudy Gobert S 38 4 9 1
Josh Minott 5 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 30 4 8
Buddy Hield S 35 27 4 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 36 20 7 2
Kevon Looney 21 12 9 1
Gary Payton II S 27 8 5 2
Draymond Green S 31 6 6 7
Brandin Podziemski 20 6 3 3
Kyle Anderson 8 3 2 0
Moses Moody 5 2 1 0
Lindy Waters III 22 0 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Kuminga · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jonathan Kuminga makes 6-foot two point shot (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
15%
2 Stephen Curry GS
14%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Mike Conley MIN
10%
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Kevon Looney GS
9%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
10 Draymond Green GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
28%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.2 5.6 4.7
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.5 5.9 6.3
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.8 6.4 4.6
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.7 4.4 2.0
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.0 11.3 2.2
6 Draymond Green GS 11.1 7.4 5.8
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.8 3.3 2.7
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 4.0 2.0
9 Naz Reid MIN 10.5 5.2 1.7
10 Mike Conley MIN 10.2 3.0 4.2
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 8.7 2.9 4.0
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.6 4.7 3.1
13 Buddy Hield GS 8.2 2.8 1.2
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.7 4.9 1.5
15 Luka Garza MIN 6.1 2.8 0.7
16 Lindy Waters III GS 6.1 2.7 1.1
17 Moses Moody GS 5.4 1.9 0.9
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 6.3 1.6
19 Gary Payton II GS 4.9 3.3 0.9
20 Kyle Anderson GS 4.9 2.3 1.8
21 Daishen Nix MIN 4.5 1.6 1.2
22 Josh Minott MIN 3.5 2.1 0.7
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.5 1.5 1.0
24 PJ Dozier MIN 3.3 1.4 0.9
25 Pat Spencer GS 2.9 1.5 1.5
26 Gui Santos GS 0.9 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.