NBA games

NO @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
116121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO34282529116
SA28432129121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home SA
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 38 25 6 5
CJ McCollum S 34 19 4 5
Yves Missi S 32 18 14 0
Dejounte Murray S 34 18 6 11
Brandon Boston 28 17 3 1
Herbert Jones S 38 12 3 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 19 5 5 1
Jamal Cain 10 2 1 1
Trey Jemison III 3 0 1 0
Antonio Reeves 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 26 25 10 1
Stephon Castle S 34 22 5 4
Harrison Barnes S 32 16 1 3
Charles Bassey 18 16 12 0
Julian Champagnie S 35 12 6 0
Keldon Johnson 11 8 2 4
Jeremy Sochan 23 7 5 1
Devin Vassell 28 7 4 4
Chris Paul S 31 6 7 10
Zach Collins 3 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
4 Yves Missi NO
11%
5 Chris Paul SA
10%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
8 Zach Collins SA
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
10 Herbert Jones NO
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.1 11.6 5.4
2 CJ McCollum NO 22.0 4.4 4.2
3 Trey Murphy III NO 18.4 4.6 3.0
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.3 2.8 3.6
5 Jeremy Sochan SA 17.5 9.1 3.3
6 Stephon Castle SA 17.3 3.6 5.4
7 Dejounte Murray NO 15.8 6.0 6.0
8 Julian Champagnie SA 15.6 4.8 2.1
9 Keldon Johnson SA 13.7 5.2 2.0
10 Brandon Boston NO 12.8 3.4 3.2
11 Harrison Barnes SA 12.7 4.9 2.1
12 Yves Missi NO 12.5 10.1 1.4
13 Chris Paul SA 12.0 4.4 8.0
14 Herbert Jones NO 10.6 3.7 2.2
15 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 8.8 5.9 1.7
16 Javonte Green NO 8.2 3.8 1.2
17 Zach Collins SA 6.4 3.9 1.3
18 Charles Bassey SA 5.7 5.2 0.9
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.2 2.9 0.8
20 Malaki Branham SA 5.2 1.9 1.6
21 Jamal Cain NO 4.9 3.0 0.7
22 Antonio Reeves NO 4.5 1.3 0.5
23 Blake Wesley SA 4.3 1.7 1.2
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.7 1.8 0.8
25 Daniel Theis NO 3.4 2.5 0.7
26 Trey Jemison III NO 3.2 2.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.