NO @ SA
NBA
Frost Bank Center
·Final
116–121
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 34 | 28 | 25 | 29 | 116 |
| SA | 28 | 43 | 21 | 29 | 121 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
SA
22%
78%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III S | 38 | 25 | 6 | 5 |
| CJ McCollum S | 34 | 19 | 4 | 5 |
| Yves Missi S | 32 | 18 | 14 | 0 |
| Dejounte Murray S | 34 | 18 | 6 | 11 |
| Brandon Boston | 28 | 17 | 3 | 1 |
| Herbert Jones S | 38 | 12 | 3 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | 19 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Jamal Cain | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Trey Jemison III | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Antonio Reeves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Victor Wembanyama ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
CJ McCollum
NO
14%
2
Stephon Castle
SA
11%
3
Dejounte Murray
NO
11%
4
Yves Missi
NO
11%
5
Chris Paul
SA
10%
6
Victor Wembanyama
SA
9%
7
Julian Champagnie
SA
9%
8
Zach Collins
SA
8%
9
Harrison Barnes
SA
8%
10
Herbert Jones
NO
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA | 27.1 | 11.6 | 5.4 |
| 2 | CJ McCollum | NO | 22.0 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| 3 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 18.4 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| 4 | Devin Vassell | SA | 18.3 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| 5 | Jeremy Sochan | SA | 17.5 | 9.1 | 3.3 |
| 6 | Stephon Castle | SA | 17.3 | 3.6 | 5.4 |
| 7 | Dejounte Murray | NO | 15.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| 8 | Julian Champagnie | SA | 15.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 |
| 9 | Keldon Johnson | SA | 13.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 |
| 10 | Brandon Boston | NO | 12.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| 11 | Harrison Barnes | SA | 12.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 |
| 12 | Yves Missi | NO | 12.5 | 10.1 | 1.4 |
| 13 | Chris Paul | SA | 12.0 | 4.4 | 8.0 |
| 14 | Herbert Jones | NO | 10.6 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| 15 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 8.8 | 5.9 | 1.7 |
| 16 | Javonte Green | NO | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| 17 | Zach Collins | SA | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 |
| 18 | Charles Bassey | SA | 5.7 | 5.2 | 0.9 |
| 19 | Sandro Mamukelashvili | SA | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 20 | Malaki Branham | SA | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 21 | Jamal Cain | NO | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| 22 | Antonio Reeves | NO | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 23 | Blake Wesley | SA | 4.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 24 | Sidy Cissoko | SA | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 25 | Daniel Theis | NO | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 26 | Trey Jemison III | NO | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.