NBA games

MEM @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
140–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM34383929140
WSH26292730112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home WSH
85% 15%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 17 21 4 1
Santi Aldama 20 19 7 5
Jay Huff 24 17 3 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 22 14 3 12
Cam Spencer 25 14 4 5
Marcus Smart S 21 13 3 1
Brandon Clarke S 23 12 7 2
Jake LaRavia 24 9 3 3
John Konchar 22 7 8 2
Colin Castleton 7 6 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marvin Bagley III 25 20 7 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 20 14 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 17 5 4
Justin Champagnie S 34 14 8 0
Jared Butler 26 14 5 7
Jordan Poole S 29 9 1 2
Johnny Davis 20 9 3 0
Bub Carrington S 33 7 5 2
Anthony Gill 22 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Scotty Pippen Jr. makes driving layup (Brandon Clarke assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
2 Brandon Clarke MEM
12%
3 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
12%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
8 Justin Champagnie WSH
10%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
9%
10 Marcus Smart MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 23.8 3.3 6.3
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.8 6.8 2.3
3 Santi Aldama MEM 15.6 8.0 3.1
4 Alex Sarr WSH 12.8 6.7 1.9
5 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 12.7 8.5 2.1
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.9 3.9 2.3
7 Corey Kispert WSH 11.5 3.7 1.5
8 Bub Carrington WSH 11.0 3.6 2.9
9 Marcus Smart MEM 10.6 2.9 5.0
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.8 3.5 4.1
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.7 5.0 3.4
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 9.3 7.0 1.5
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.2 4.6 3.3
14 Jay Huff MEM 8.1 3.3 1.2
15 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.6 3.4 0.9
16 Jared Butler WSH 5.2 1.3 1.8
17 Marvin Bagley III WSH 4.1 2.3 0.6
18 Anthony Gill WSH 3.9 1.8 0.6
19 Johnny Davis WSH 3.5 1.9 0.6
20 John Konchar MEM 3.1 2.5 0.8
21 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.1 2.6 0.3
22 Colin Castleton MEM 1.9 1.7 0.7
23 Yuki Kawamura MEM 1.7 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.