NBA games

PHX @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
110–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX34282523110
ORL29282731115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home ORL
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 25 4 7
Tyus Jones S 34 21 1 6
Bradley Beal S 35 18 4 2
Royce O'Neale S 31 16 7 1
Grayson Allen 22 13 4 2
Mason Plumlee S 26 7 6 0
Monte Morris 14 4 1 2
Oso Ighodaro 22 4 5 4
Bol Bol 5 2 2 0
Josh Okogie 12 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 31 26 4 2
Goga Bitadze S 31 21 16 4
Cole Anthony 29 14 2 3
Moritz Wagner 17 10 6 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 8 0 1
Anthony Black 26 8 3 2
Tristan da Silva S 19 8 5 0
Caleb Houstan 18 8 2 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 21 6 5 0
Jett Howard 15 6 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyus Jones · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Tyus Jones makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
13%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
13%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
12%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
6 Mason Plumlee PHX
10%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
10%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
9%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
10 Oso Ighodaro PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
31%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.9 4.0 5.8
2 Bradley Beal PHX 18.4 4.5 3.2
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.4 3.2 4.4
4 Tyus Jones PHX 13.1 2.8 6.4
5 Moritz Wagner ORL 13.1 6.5 2.4
6 Grayson Allen PHX 12.5 3.3 2.6
7 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.7 5.3 1.8
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.3 2.5 1.8
9 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.1 7.3 1.8
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.9 6.4 2.2
11 Anthony Black ORL 8.7 2.9 3.7
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.0 3.2 1.3
13 Josh Okogie PHX 7.3 2.9 0.8
14 Monte Morris PHX 6.1 1.5 1.4
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.9 4.6 0.8
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.8 4.1 1.3
17 Cole Anthony ORL 5.3 1.7 1.7
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.6 5.7 1.6
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.2 2.1 0.8
20 Bol Bol PHX 4.1 2.4 0.6
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.5 1.2 0.6
22 Damion Lee PHX 2.3 0.5 0.6
23 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 2.0 0.4 0.5
24 Cory Joseph ORL 1.6 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.