NBA games

CLE @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
113–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25262933113
MIA21383132122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIA
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 32 23 5 5
Georges Niang 31 15 6 2
Ty Jerome 21 14 4 6
Caris LeVert 29 13 2 4
Donovan Mitchell S 31 12 1 5
Dean Wade S 29 11 8 0
Sam Merrill 21 10 0 2
Jarrett Allen S 29 6 7 1
JT Thor 2 5 0 0
Evan Mobley S 12 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 34 6 7
Duncan Robinson S 28 23 3 1
Jimmy Butler III S 35 18 3 5
Bam Adebayo S 36 16 13 6
Terry Rozier 28 14 9 3
Dru Smith 26 11 4 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 16 4 3 2
Thomas Bryant 7 2 1 0
Kevin Love 5 0 0 0
Haywood Highsmith S 24 0 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Layup (2 pts) · 9:58 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
16%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
6 Evan Mobley CLE
8%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
10%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.2 5.9 5.3
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.9 5.4 5.2
3 Evan Mobley CLE 21.4 10.0 3.6
4 Darius Garland CLE 21.4 3.2 6.5
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.1 6.2 4.4
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.9 10.5 6.4
7 Caris LeVert CLE 12.6 3.3 3.9
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.5 10.1 2.0
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.2 2.8 3.2
10 Ty Jerome CLE 12.1 2.5 3.6
11 Terry Rozier MIA 11.0 2.8 2.3
12 Georges Niang CLE 8.9 3.9 1.6
13 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.6 3.8 2.2
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.1 3.5 1.5
15 Kevin Love MIA 6.8 4.6 1.4
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.3 2.5 1.7
17 Dean Wade CLE 5.9 4.0 1.4
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.5 2.3 1.3
19 Dru Smith MIA 4.9 3.0 1.4
20 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.8 2.6 0.8
21 Alec Burks MIA 4.5 1.8 1.1
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.2 3.3 0.7
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.1 1.7 0.7
24 Josh Richardson MIA 3.8 1.2 1.2
25 JT Thor CLE 3.2 1.6 0.3
26 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.2 2.2 0.9
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 2.4 0.5
28 Luke Travers CLE 1.6 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.