NBA games

DEN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
141–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN38333535141
ATL23253627111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home ATL
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 35 48 14 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 26 7 3
Christian Braun S 32 17 8 4
Julian Strawther 22 13 2 3
Russell Westbrook S 31 9 1 11
Aaron Gordon S 23 6 2 6
Hunter Tyson 8 5 1 1
Jalen Pickett 17 5 2 5
DeAndre Jordan 10 4 4 2
PJ Hall 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 24 20 3 1
Dyson Daniels S 34 18 4 6
Larry Nance Jr. S 24 16 4 3
Trae Young S 35 15 4 10
Onyeka Okongwu 25 14 9 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 29 10 4 0
Clint Capela S 19 9 10 1
Kobe Bufkin 4 4 2 0
Vit Krejci 20 3 2 3
Garrison Mathews 21 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
17%
2 Trae Young ATL
10%
3 Christian Braun DEN
10%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
9 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
10 Russell Westbrook DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
10%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.9 12.6 11.2
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.5 9.6 6.4
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.1 7.1 3.3
4 Trae Young ATL 19.2 3.9 12.1
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 18.9 4.0 2.0
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.2 6.2 3.6
7 Christian Braun DEN 15.6 5.1 2.3
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.1 4.4 6.6
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 13.6 3.9 2.5
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.5 5.6 3.7
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.0 6.3 1.5
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.9 3.6 1.5
13 Peyton Watson DEN 10.7 4.0 1.9
14 Clint Capela ATL 10.0 10.7 1.6
15 Julian Strawther DEN 8.7 2.5 1.5
16 Kobe Bufkin ATL 7.5 2.3 2.0
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.7 2.1 1.1
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.5 1.0 1.0
19 Vit Krejci ATL 4.2 2.1 1.3
20 David Roddy ATL 3.7 1.8 1.0
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.6 3.7 0.9
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.5 2.2 0.7
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.0 1.2 1.3
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.1 0.6
25 Trey Alexander DEN 1.9 0.7 0.5
26 PJ Hall DEN 1.4 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.