NBA games

CHA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
113–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA28352030113
IND24382027109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home IND
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 40 26 6 5
Vasilije Micic S 34 18 2 9
Cody Martin S 33 14 6 1
Josh Green S 29 10 4 1
Isaiah Wong 18 9 3 4
Nick Richards S 25 9 14 1
Seth Curry 12 9 0 0
DaQuan Jeffries 20 8 4 1
Taj Gibson 8 6 4 0
KJ Simpson 13 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
T.J. McConnell 26 30 1 6
Jarace Walker 20 15 3 0
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 11 3 0
Obi Toppin 23 11 3 2
Myles Turner S 21 10 1 0
Andrew Nembhard S 31 10 4 3
Pascal Siakam S 34 9 11 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 9 2 8
Johnny Furphy 9 2 0 1
Enrique Freeman 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cody Martin · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:43 Q1
"Cody Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
3 Nick Richards CHA
10%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
5 Myles Turner IND
8%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
8 Taj Gibson CHA
7%
9 Cody Martin CHA
7%
10 Quenton Jackson IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
25%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 26.0 6.1 3.7
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.0 3.3 8.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 20.9 6.1 3.4
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.1 6.0 2.3
5 Myles Turner IND 14.0 8.0 2.2
6 T.J. McConnell IND 13.2 3.7 3.7
7 Nick Richards CHA 12.1 8.9 1.7
8 Josh Green CHA 10.0 3.2 2.0
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.5 2.6 4.3
10 Cody Martin CHA 9.3 5.7 2.9
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.0 4.7 1.7
12 Vasilije Micic CHA 8.7 2.5 4.1
13 Quenton Jackson IND 7.4 2.4 2.0
14 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 7.1 2.6 1.3
15 Mark Williams CHA 6.6 4.3 1.0
16 Jarace Walker IND 6.3 3.5 1.8
17 KJ Simpson CHA 6.1 2.4 2.5
18 Johnny Furphy IND 4.7 2.1 0.7
19 Seth Curry CHA 4.6 1.7 0.7
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.2 1.5 1.0
21 Taj Gibson CHA 3.9 3.5 0.9
22 Moses Brown IND 2.8 1.2 0.3
23 Tristen Newton IND 2.7 0.8 1.4
24 Enrique Freeman IND 2.3 1.1 0.6
25 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.