NBA games

MIL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
118–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL27243532118
BKN25273427113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home BKN
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 34 11 4
Bobby Portis 31 23 5 1
Gary Trent Jr. 25 20 0 0
Damian Lillard S 39 15 6 11
Khris Middleton 20 11 2 6
Andre Jackson Jr. S 21 6 0 2
AJ Green 22 6 1 0
Brook Lopez S 26 3 3 0
Taurean Prince S 18 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 34 34 3 11
Cameron Johnson S 38 26 3 2
Nic Claxton S 33 21 10 4
Dorian Finney-Smith S 31 9 4 1
Shake Milton 16 6 1 0
Keon Johnson S 21 6 0 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 11 4 1 0
Trendon Watford 13 4 3 2
Jalen Wilson 26 3 2 3
Ben Simmons 18 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
2 Dennis Schroder BKN
11%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
7 Keon Johnson BKN
7%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
9 Jalen Wilson BKN
7%
10 Tyrese Martin BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
31%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.5 10.6 7.2
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.8 4.2 8.1
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 20.4 4.5 3.4
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 17.9 3.6 6.2
5 Brook Lopez MIL 11.9 5.2 1.9
6 Bobby Portis MIL 11.9 6.7 2.4
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.1 3.0 1.3
8 Nic Claxton BKN 10.2 7.8 2.1
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.9 3.6 1.3
10 Taurean Prince MIL 9.6 3.1 1.8
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.5 3.1 1.4
12 AJ Green MIL 8.7 2.8 1.3
13 Trendon Watford BKN 8.7 3.4 1.5
14 Shake Milton BKN 8.7 2.4 2.4
15 Ben Simmons BKN 6.8 5.7 5.8
16 Keon Johnson BKN 6.2 2.9 1.5
17 Noah Clowney BKN 5.7 2.3 0.8
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.5 3.6 1.3
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.3 2.7 1.6
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.6 1.8 0.8
21 Delon Wright MIL 4.4 2.5 1.6
22 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.3 1.4 0.9
23 Stanley Umude MIL 2.3 1.1 0.5
24 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 1.7 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.