NBA games

PHI @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
108–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI23392620108
CHI33172921100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHI
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 33 31 12 4
Tyrese Maxey S 42 25 11 14
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 12 10 1
Paul George S 35 12 7 2
Jared McCain 28 11 0 4
KJ Martin 18 6 3 0
Guerschon Yabusele S 14 4 3 0
Andre Drummond 7 4 7 0
Kyle Lowry 12 3 1 0
Caleb Martin 13 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 32 30 4 3
Nikola Vucevic S 29 13 8 3
Coby White S 37 13 4 5
Jalen Smith 19 11 4 0
Ayo Dosunmu S 35 10 3 5
Josh Giddey S 32 9 7 11
Matas Buzelis 24 5 3 0
Julian Phillips 3 3 0 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 6 3 0 0
Lonzo Ball 20 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Guerschon Yabusele · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Guerschon Yabusele makes driving layup (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
13%
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
4 Paul George PHI
9%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
6 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
7 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
8 Coby White CHI
8%
9 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
28%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI 23.2 9.9 3.8
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.0 3.5 5.3
3 Joel Embiid PHI 22.8 7.7 3.8
4 Zach LaVine CHI 22.5 4.1 4.9
5 Jared McCain PHI 19.5 3.6 3.4
6 Paul George PHI 18.4 4.9 6.2
7 Coby White CHI 17.1 4.1 4.7
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.5 3.6 4.9
9 Josh Giddey CHI 13.3 6.0 6.6
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.1 5.6 1.8
11 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.8 6.1 2.3
12 Caleb Martin PHI 10.1 4.0 2.0
13 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 8.3 2.0 1.4
14 KJ Martin PHI 7.7 3.1 1.3
15 Matas Buzelis CHI 7.6 3.2 0.8
16 Jalen Smith CHI 7.4 5.3 0.9
17 Andre Drummond PHI 6.9 6.5 1.0
18 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.5 2.4 2.7
19 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.1 2.6 3.3
20 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.2 2.2 1.0
21 Dalen Terry CHI 5.1 1.4 1.0
22 Julian Phillips CHI 5.1 2.5 0.8
23 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.5 1.4 1.8
24 Torrey Craig CHI 3.8 1.4 0.4
25 Eric Gordon PHI 3.4 1.1 1.0
26 Chris Duarte CHI 3.1 1.6 0.6
27 Jevon Carter CHI 2.9 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.