NBA games

PHX @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
111–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX29292429111
MIA26273434121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIA
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Royce O'Neale S 31 23 8 3
Devin Booker S 37 21 4 7
Grayson Allen 30 16 2 4
Bradley Beal S 34 15 5 4
Tyus Jones S 29 13 1 4
Monte Morris 19 12 4 3
Josh Okogie 13 7 0 0
Oso Ighodaro 21 2 6 1
Mason Plumlee S 25 2 11 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 34 25 12 8
Jimmy Butler III S 34 24 7 4
Duncan Robinson S 29 19 2 4
Tyler Herro S 34 17 8 7
Haywood Highsmith S 29 14 3 0
Kevin Love 14 11 4 2
Dru Smith 29 7 4 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 4 0 2
Terry Rozier 16 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer (Jimmy Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
18%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
17%
3 Devin Booker PHX
10%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
6 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
7%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
9%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.5 4.1 6.1
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.3 4.8 5.1
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.9 5.6 4.9
4 Bradley Beal PHX 18.5 4.9 3.4
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.0 10.4 6.2
6 Tyus Jones PHX 13.3 2.9 7.1
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.5 3.2 2.6
8 Terry Rozier MIA 12.1 2.9 2.5
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.6 2.6 2.7
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.6 5.2 1.9
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.3 4.2 2.5
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.8 3.2 1.5
13 Josh Okogie PHX 7.7 3.5 1.1
14 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.1 3.9 1.3
15 Kevin Love MIA 5.9 4.9 1.4
16 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.6 6.3 1.7
17 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.5 2.3 1.3
18 Monte Morris PHX 5.5 1.7 1.4
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.9 2.6 0.8
20 Alec Burks MIA 4.5 1.7 1.1
21 Bol Bol PHX 4.4 2.6 0.8
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.2 3.2 0.7
23 Dru Smith MIA 4.2 2.5 1.6
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.1 1.6 0.7
25 Josh Richardson MIA 4.0 1.2 1.2
26 Damion Lee PHX 2.6 0.6 0.7
27 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 2.4 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.