NBA games

MEM @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
127–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31352833127
BOS27273532121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home BOS
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 34 32 9 9
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 27 9 1
Brandon Clarke S 26 18 8 4
Desmond Bane S 33 14 2 4
Jay Huff 18 10 9 2
Santi Aldama 17 9 6 1
Jaylen Wells S 18 7 1 0
Jake LaRavia 24 5 4 0
Marcus Smart 19 3 2 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 17 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 30 23 4 3
Jaylen Brown S 35 22 3 6
Payton Pritchard 30 22 6 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 33 19 8 2
Jayson Tatum S 38 17 13 9
Derrick White S 38 10 6 3
Neemias Queta 17 5 7 1
Luke Kornet 9 3 3 0
Sam Hauser 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Layup (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
12%
3 Ja Morant MEM
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
6 Brandon Clarke MEM
9%
7 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
20%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 28.0 9.9 5.9
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.4 5.8 5.4
3 Ja Morant MEM 23.1 5.2 8.3
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.2 7.7 2.1
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.1 6.3 2.1
6 Derrick White BOS 16.5 4.8 5.5
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.6 4.0 2.7
8 Santi Aldama MEM 14.6 7.4 2.8
9 Desmond Bane MEM 13.4 6.6 4.7
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.8 4.4 4.1
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.5 3.8 2.1
12 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.8 3.4 4.2
13 Sam Hauser BOS 9.8 3.4 1.3
14 Marcus Smart MEM 9.3 3.0 4.9
15 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.6 4.2 3.2
16 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.2 6.5 1.2
17 Jay Huff MEM 7.4 2.5 0.9
18 Neemias Queta BOS 6.2 4.9 1.0
19 Drew Peterson BOS 4.8 2.2 0.6
20 Luke Kornet BOS 4.4 4.6 1.2
21 John Konchar MEM 2.7 2.5 0.7
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.3 1.6 0.5
23 Jaden Springer BOS 2.2 0.9 0.6
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.2 1.2 0.4
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.1 1.9 0.4
26 Yuki Kawamura MEM 1.4 0.6 0.4
27 Colin Castleton MEM 1.3 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.