NBA games

DAL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
125–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL35353025125
TOR28263331118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home TOR
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 30 13 11
Kyrie Irving S 39 29 6 4
Klay Thompson S 25 20 5 0
P.J. Washington S 34 13 5 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 24 11 2 0
Daniel Gafford 21 10 6 0
Dereck Lively II S 27 7 6 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 10 5 6 2
Quentin Grimes 17 0 2 1
Dwight Powell 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 34 27 4 1
Jakob Poeltl S 34 20 7 7
Scottie Barnes S 38 19 8 14
RJ Barrett S 27 18 4 5
Kelly Olynyk 14 13 4 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 21 8 0 3
Jonathan Mogbo 21 8 7 2
Ochai Agbaji S 20 4 2 0
Davion Mitchell 27 1 3 4
Jamison Battle 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
13%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
5 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
8 RJ Barrett TOR
8%
9 Bruno Fernando TOR
8%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
20%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.4 7.5 8.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 25.7 7.3 6.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.4 9.3 8.2
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.8 4.9 5.9
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 18.0 11.8 2.4
6 P.J. Washington DAL 17.5 9.1 3.6
7 Gradey Dick TOR 15.5 3.2 2.2
8 Quentin Grimes DAL 14.6 4.8 2.6
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.6 7.4 1.5
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.1 2.8 4.4
11 Klay Thompson DAL 11.5 3.3 1.9
12 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.3 3.6 2.1
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.7 7.8 2.0
14 Chris Boucher TOR 8.1 4.2 0.8
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.7 1.9 4.0
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.3 3.8 1.4
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.1 3.4 1.5
18 Jamison Battle TOR 5.9 1.7 1.1
19 Jamal Shead TOR 4.7 1.3 1.9
20 Bruno Fernando TOR 4.2 3.3 1.3
21 Jazian Gortman DAL 4.1 0.9 0.7
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.9 2.5 0.9
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.9 1.9 0.5
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.7 1.6 0.6
25 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.4 1.8 0.8
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.3 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.