NBA games

DET @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
120–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET39302031120
NY23352726111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NY
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 35 29 10 15
Malik Beasley 26 23 4 1
Jaden Ivey S 29 16 4 4
Tobias Harris S 34 13 9 1
Jalen Duren S 25 12 3 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 31 11 3 0
Isaiah Stewart 23 6 5 2
Simone Fontecchio 19 6 2 3
Ronald Holland II 18 4 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 44 31 4 10
Mikal Bridges S 38 20 3 3
Josh Hart S 39 17 6 3
OG Anunoby S 39 17 4 2
Ariel Hukporti 15 9 2 2
Miles McBride 27 8 2 2
Precious Achiuwa 28 6 10 4
Tyler Kolek 4 3 0 0
Jericho Sims S 6 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tim Hardaway Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 22-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 OG Anunoby NY
11%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
7 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
8 Jalen Duren DET
10%
9 Josh Hart NY
9%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
39%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.4 8.8
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.1 6.9 10.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.5 13.0 4.2
4 Jaden Ivey DET 18.8 3.8 5.0
5 Mikal Bridges NY 18.3 3.6 3.5
6 OG Anunoby NY 18.1 4.9 2.0
7 Josh Hart NY 16.7 7.3 5.6
8 Malik Beasley DET 15.5 3.3 2.3
9 Tobias Harris DET 14.4 5.6 2.1
10 Miles McBride NY 11.7 3.0 2.5
11 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.9 6.4 1.7
12 Jalen Duren DET 9.4 8.1 1.8
13 Cameron Payne NY 8.8 2.3 3.0
14 Marcus Sasser DET 7.1 1.3 1.7
15 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 7.0 2.1 1.2
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.4 4.7 1.6
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.6 2.4 0.8
18 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.9 3.1 0.9
19 Ronald Holland II DET 4.6 2.6 1.1
20 Paul Reed DET 3.9 1.9 0.5
21 Jericho Sims NY 3.9 3.8 0.9
22 Tyler Kolek NY 3.5 1.4 1.1
23 Matt Ryan NY 2.7 0.9 0.6
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 2.2 0.7
25 Jacob Toppin NY 2.5 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.