NBA games

OKC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
119–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC35422220119
NO23282929109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home NO
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 31 2 4
Jalen Williams S 35 27 6 5
Alex Caruso 24 14 2 3
Luguentz Dort S 31 14 5 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 12 12 5
Ajay Mitchell 19 10 3 4
Cason Wallace S 27 5 7 2
Kenrich Williams 12 4 2 0
Aaron Wiggins 15 2 3 2
Isaiah Joe 14 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 36 26 9 5
Herbert Jones S 37 24 4 4
Trey Murphy III 34 16 3 2
CJ McCollum S 38 11 5 8
Brandon Boston 22 11 2 1
Yves Missi S 29 8 7 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 17 6 3 2
Brandon Ingram S 19 5 1 3
Javonte Green 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
19%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Yves Missi NO
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Isaiah Joe OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Dejounte Murray NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
21%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.9 5.2 7.0
2 Jalen Williams OKC 24.5 6.2 5.5
3 Brandon Ingram NO 24.1 5.7 6.3
4 CJ McCollum NO 21.9 4.3 3.8
5 Trey Murphy III NO 17.7 4.6 2.7
6 Dejounte Murray NO 14.7 5.7 5.7
7 Brandon Boston NO 12.9 3.7 3.6
8 Yves Missi NO 12.3 10.6 1.4
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.2 11.7 4.7
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.6 3.0 2.0
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.3 6.1 2.2
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.3 3.6 1.3
13 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 9.3 6.3 1.6
14 Cason Wallace OKC 9.0 4.0 2.7
15 Javonte Green NO 9.0 4.1 1.3
16 Herbert Jones NO 8.5 3.2 1.7
17 Alex Caruso OKC 7.3 3.3 1.9
18 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.5 2.0 1.3
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.1 3.8 1.1
20 Jamal Cain NO 4.9 2.9 0.7
21 Daniel Theis NO 3.3 2.5 0.7
22 Trey Jemison III NO 3.2 2.8 0.6
23 Adam Flagler OKC 3.1 1.4 0.7
24 Branden Carlson OKC 2.9 2.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.