NBA games

DEN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
113–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29283620113
WSH36333023122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home WSH
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 56 16 8
Julian Strawther 33 18 3 2
Christian Braun S 38 14 2 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 11 5 6
Russell Westbrook S 32 7 10 12
Peyton Watson S 26 4 2 2
Hunter Tyson 12 2 4 0
DeAndre Jordan 9 1 3 2
Jalen Pickett 16 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 40 39 5 8
Justin Champagnie S 37 23 8 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 32 20 12 5
Jared Butler 17 12 2 4
Bub Carrington S 34 10 4 6
Johnny Davis 13 7 3 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 40 6 6 5
Anthony Gill 11 5 4 0
Marvin Bagley III 16 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Peyton Watson · Layup (2 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Peyton Watson makes two point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
17%
2 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
16%
3 Christian Braun DEN
15%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
15%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
14%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
12%
7 Marvin Bagley III WSH
11%
8 Russell Westbrook DEN
0%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
0%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
7%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 32.4 13.8 11.1
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 21.6 7.1 3.2
3 Jordan Poole WSH 21.2 3.3 6.7
4 Christian Braun DEN 15.8 5.3 2.6
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 14.6 4.9 3.0
6 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.4 4.1 6.4
7 Corey Kispert WSH 11.7 3.8 1.6
8 Peyton Watson DEN 11.2 4.2 1.8
9 Bub Carrington WSH 11.0 3.6 3.5
10 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.4 7.3 1.7
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.8 5.4 3.3
12 Julian Strawther DEN 7.4 2.4 1.4
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.8 2.5 0.8
14 Jared Butler WSH 4.5 1.4 2.0
15 Marvin Bagley III WSH 4.0 2.1 0.6
16 Anthony Gill WSH 3.8 1.7 0.7
17 Johnny Davis WSH 3.3 1.6 0.7
18 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.2 2.7 0.4
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.1 1.1 1.1
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.7 1.5 0.6
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.7 3.1 0.5
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.6 1.2 0.6
23 Trey Alexander DEN 2.2 0.8 0.5
24 PJ Hall DEN 1.6 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.