NBA games

CLE @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
116–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE40233023116
CHA18343119102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHA
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 34 41 10 2
Darius Garland S 33 18 2 5
Donovan Mitchell S 36 18 8 8
Jarrett Allen S 33 11 10 3
Dean Wade S 24 7 4 3
Caris LeVert 24 7 3 4
Sam Merrill 20 6 1 0
Ty Jerome 12 5 3 0
Georges Niang 18 3 6 3
Jaylon Tyson 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 34 25 4 1
DaQuan Jeffries 25 17 6 1
Josh Green S 39 16 2 3
Vasilije Micic S 35 13 5 7
Mark Williams 11 12 5 2
Isaiah Wong 11 9 2 0
Cody Martin S 36 4 9 4
Nick Smith Jr. 15 4 0 0
KJ Simpson 12 2 1 0
Seth Curry 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 1-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
19%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
17%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
17%
4 Darius Garland CLE
13%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
13%
6 Josh Green CHA
10%
7 Vasilije Micic CHA
10%
8 Georges Niang CLE
0%
9 Ty Jerome CLE
0%
10 Dean Wade CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.8 6.3 5.0
2 Brandon Miller CHA 23.0 6.1 4.0
3 Darius Garland CLE 21.9 3.3 6.5
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.2 10.1 3.3
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.2 10.2 2.0
6 Ty Jerome CLE 12.9 2.4 3.6
7 Caris LeVert CLE 12.4 3.4 3.6
8 Georges Niang CLE 9.9 4.0 1.4
9 Josh Green CHA 9.8 3.4 1.9
10 Cody Martin CHA 9.1 5.1 2.5
11 Vasilije Micic CHA 7.3 2.7 3.4
12 KJ Simpson CHA 6.3 2.7 2.6
13 Sam Merrill CLE 6.2 2.4 1.7
14 Dean Wade CLE 5.8 3.8 1.3
15 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.1 1.8 1.2
16 Seth Curry CHA 4.7 1.7 0.7
17 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.9 1.5 1.0
18 JT Thor CLE 3.2 1.6 0.3
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.0 2.6 0.6
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.8 1.9 0.8
21 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 3.1 0.5
22 Luke Travers CLE 1.6 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.