NBA games

UTAH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
141–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH33343539141
POR1727262999

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home POR
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Johnny Juzang 26 22 2 0
John Collins S 28 20 3 2
Keyonte George S 24 17 5 4
Collin Sexton S 23 16 2 7
Walker Kessler S 31 13 17 2
Svi Mykhailiuk S 21 13 8 4
Isaiah Collier 23 12 4 7
Drew Eubanks 17 12 9 2
Brice Sensabaugh 20 11 1 4
Micah Potter 27 5 10 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 29 19 3 1
Dalano Banton 27 19 3 4
Anfernee Simons S 28 14 5 5
Kris Murray 20 14 2 1
Shaedon Sharpe S 29 10 2 4
Duop Reath 25 8 5 1
Deni Avdija 24 6 5 2
Deandre Ayton S 17 6 4 0
Rayan Rupert 16 2 2 2
Jabari Walker 19 1 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes 20-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
3 John Collins UTAH
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
8%
9 Robert Williams III POR
8%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
28%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.1 3.9 3.4
2 John Collins UTAH 19.8 10.0 2.9
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.8 2.9 3.9
4 Keyonte George UTAH 18.3 3.7 5.6
5 Deni Avdija POR 17.4 6.3 3.8
6 Deandre Ayton POR 16.6 8.7 2.1
7 Anfernee Simons POR 16.4 3.2 4.0
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 16.1 3.7 3.7
9 Jerami Grant POR 14.2 3.4 3.6
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 13.1 10.8 1.6
11 Dalano Banton POR 12.2 3.5 3.6
12 Toumani Camara POR 11.2 5.3 2.5
13 Scoot Henderson POR 10.8 2.7 5.3
14 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.1 2.2 1.3
15 Robert Williams III POR 7.5 5.5 1.2
16 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.4 1.4 1.4
17 Donovan Clingan POR 6.2 7.1 0.7
18 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.5 1.7 3.6
19 Johnny Juzang UTAH 5.4 2.5 1.3
20 Micah Potter UTAH 5.3 4.7 1.0
21 Kris Murray POR 5.2 2.2 0.9
22 Drew Eubanks UTAH 4.3 3.7 1.1
23 Rayan Rupert POR 3.8 1.8 0.9
24 Jabari Walker POR 3.5 2.7 0.9
25 Patty Mills UTAH 3.1 0.9 1.0
26 Duop Reath POR 3.0 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.