NBA games

MIN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
107–90
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN31252229107
GS3115261890

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home GS
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 30 4 9
Rudy Gobert S 35 17 11 1
Julius Randle S 24 16 9 4
Mike Conley S 27 13 4 4
Jaden McDaniels S 30 10 3 2
Naz Reid 32 9 10 4
Donte DiVincenzo 25 5 4 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 18 5 2 2
Luka Garza 2 2 1 0
Daishen Nix 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 23 2 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 29 13 2 1
Andrew Wiggins S 19 11 2 0
Draymond Green 26 10 9 6
Brandin Podziemski S 25 8 6 2
Lindy Waters III 20 6 0 0
Kyle Anderson 12 4 1 1
Buddy Hield 13 4 3 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 11 3 4 1
Moses Moody 7 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Kuminga · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Stephen Curry GS
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
7 Kevon Looney GS
8%
8 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
6%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.5 6.1 6.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.0 5.4 4.3
3 Julius Randle MIN 23.3 6.6 4.3
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 19.7 4.6 2.8
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.0 4.6 2.0
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.2 11.2 1.8
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.1 3.4 2.8
8 Naz Reid MIN 10.7 4.6 1.6
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 4.3 2.0
10 Draymond Green GS 10.5 6.6 6.3
11 Mike Conley MIN 10.2 2.9 4.7
12 Buddy Hield GS 9.5 2.9 1.4
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.8 5.0 3.1
14 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 8.1 2.7 3.4
15 Luka Garza MIN 7.7 3.1 0.7
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.4 5.0 1.6
17 Moses Moody GS 6.1 2.1 1.0
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.5 6.9 1.6
19 Kyle Anderson GS 5.5 2.6 2.1
20 Daishen Nix MIN 4.7 1.7 1.4
21 Lindy Waters III GS 4.7 2.3 0.8
22 Gary Payton II GS 4.7 2.9 1.0
23 Josh Minott MIN 3.7 2.2 0.7
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.5 1.5 1.0
25 PJ Dozier MIN 3.3 1.4 1.0
26 Pat Spencer GS 2.9 1.5 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.