NBA games

SAC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
140–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC33363140140
SA33262727113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home SA
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 32 23 3 2
Domantas Sabonis S 33 22 16 4
De'Aaron Fox S 33 22 4 8
Malik Monk S 34 22 9 6
Keegan Murray S 33 17 6 1
Kevin Huerter 24 16 3 3
Orlando Robinson 9 5 1 4
Colby Jones 4 5 0 0
Keon Ellis 21 3 1 3
Doug McDermott 3 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Champagnie S 35 30 3 1
Stephon Castle S 29 15 3 5
Jeremy Sochan 21 14 5 2
Keldon Johnson 22 14 5 0
Chris Paul S 29 11 8 13
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 8 6 1
Harrison Barnes S 27 7 1 3
Charles Bassey 26 7 7 0
Malaki Branham 16 5 0 1
Zach Collins S 9 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Jeremy Sochan SA
14%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
4 Stephon Castle SA
10%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
6 Chris Paul SA
8%
7 Malik Monk SAC
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
30%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.8 5.0 6.9
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.8 12.1 6.8
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.4 5.0 5.1
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.1 3.7 5.4
5 Stephon Castle SA 17.1 3.2 4.9
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 17.0 8.9 3.0
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.7 5.2 1.9
8 Harrison Barnes SA 12.4 5.2 1.7
9 Julian Champagnie SA 12.4 4.8 1.8
10 Chris Paul SA 11.4 3.6 7.3
11 Keegan Murray SAC 11.3 7.1 1.8
12 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.8 3.6 1.7
13 Keon Ellis SAC 7.5 2.8 1.3
14 Zach Collins SA 6.7 3.5 1.3
15 Isaac Jones SAC 5.6 2.9 0.6
16 Jae Crowder SAC 5.4 2.8 0.9
17 Malaki Branham SA 5.3 1.7 1.5
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.6 2.5 0.7
19 Blake Wesley SA 4.5 1.4 1.1
20 Charles Bassey SA 4.1 4.0 0.7
21 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.0 1.8 1.2
22 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.8 1.7 0.8
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.6 1.6 0.7
24 Alex Len SAC 3.0 2.8 0.6
25 Orlando Robinson SAC 3.0 1.7 0.6
26 Colby Jones SAC 2.5 1.3 0.6
27 Mason Jones SAC 2.3 1.5 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.