NBA games

IND @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
132–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31363629132
CHI35193930123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHI
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 23 4 8
Pascal Siakam S 37 21 7 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 19 6 1
Obi Toppin 21 17 7 5
T.J. McConnell 23 17 2 5
Myles Turner S 32 15 7 4
Andrew Nembhard S 22 8 6 4
Jarace Walker 24 7 5 4
Johnny Furphy 10 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 34 32 3 3
Coby White S 32 19 4 9
Ayo Dosunmu S 32 15 2 5
Nikola Vucevic S 30 13 9 2
Jalen Smith 18 10 7 0
Josh Giddey S 26 10 5 6
Lonzo Ball 17 9 2 4
Matas Buzelis 18 8 2 3
Dalen Terry 15 3 2 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bennedict Mathurin · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
2 Myles Turner IND
9%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
8%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Coby White CHI
7%
9 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
10 Julian Phillips CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
17%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI 24.1 10.1 4.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.3 6.5 3.7
3 Zach LaVine CHI 22.0 4.1 5.2
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.0 3.6 8.4
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 19.3 6.1 2.6
6 Coby White CHI 18.8 4.0 4.2
7 Myles Turner IND 16.9 8.4 2.2
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.9 3.6 5.3
9 Josh Giddey CHI 13.7 6.6 6.9
10 T.J. McConnell IND 12.0 3.8 3.9
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.5 4.3 1.8
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.3 2.2 4.5
13 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 8.4 2.0 1.5
14 Quenton Jackson IND 7.9 2.6 2.1
15 Matas Buzelis CHI 7.9 3.3 0.9
16 Jalen Smith CHI 7.1 4.9 1.1
17 Jarace Walker IND 6.4 3.4 1.7
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.0 2.3 1.4
19 Lonzo Ball CHI 5.7 2.1 2.8
20 Julian Phillips CHI 5.6 3.0 1.0
21 Dalen Terry CHI 5.4 1.6 1.2
22 Johnny Furphy IND 5.0 2.2 0.9
23 Torrey Craig CHI 4.3 1.5 0.5
24 Moses Brown IND 3.5 1.7 0.6
25 Chris Duarte CHI 3.5 1.7 0.7
26 Tristen Newton IND 3.3 0.9 1.6
27 Jevon Carter CHI 3.3 1.5 0.8
28 Enrique Freeman IND 3.0 1.4 0.7
29 James Johnson IND 1.8 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.