NBA games

MIL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
105–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL27302523105
BOS29242533111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home BOS
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 40 31 5 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 30 11 1
Khris Middleton 23 11 3 5
Gary Trent Jr. 37 11 4 1
Bobby Portis 21 9 18 3
AJ Green 23 6 2 0
Brook Lopez S 38 5 5 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 12 2 1 1
Taurean Prince S 9 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 37 34 10 5
Jaylen Brown S 34 25 3 3
Jrue Holiday S 34 20 5 6
Sam Hauser 24 16 3 1
Al Horford S 36 8 9 3
Derrick White S 37 6 6 7
Neemias Queta 12 2 2 0
Payton Pritchard 24 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 Derrick White BOS
9%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
7%
8 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
9 Al Horford BOS
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
12%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.8 10.8 7.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.0 9.9 6.2
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.4 5.9 5.5
4 Damian Lillard MIL 24.2 4.4 7.6
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.8 4.1 3.4
6 Derrick White BOS 17.7 4.9 5.7
7 Brook Lopez MIL 12.7 5.4 2.0
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.1 3.9 3.8
9 Bobby Portis MIL 12.0 5.8 2.2
10 Al Horford BOS 11.7 5.3 2.2
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.3 2.9 1.4
12 Taurean Prince MIL 10.1 3.6 1.8
13 Sam Hauser BOS 9.1 3.2 1.2
14 AJ Green MIL 8.2 2.7 1.3
15 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.9 3.6 1.3
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.7 2.8 1.6
17 Neemias Queta BOS 5.5 5.6 0.9
18 Drew Peterson BOS 5.2 2.4 0.7
19 Delon Wright MIL 4.7 2.7 1.6
20 Luke Kornet BOS 4.6 4.8 1.2
21 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.8 1.7 0.9
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 1.9 0.6
23 Stanley Umude MIL 2.7 1.4 0.5
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 2.2 0.5
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.2 0.9 0.6
26 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.2 1.3 0.5
27 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.