NBA games

LAL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
132–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
LAL2935332213132
ATL2638302515134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home ATL
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 43 39 10 11
Anthony Davis S 42 38 10 8
Dalton Knecht S 28 14 3 2
Gabe Vincent S 34 12 1 5
Rui Hachimura S 41 12 9 1
Max Christie 31 9 2 2
D'Angelo Russell 21 8 3 3
Armel Traore 4 0 2 1
Cam Reddish 21 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 42 31 4 20
De'Andre Hunter 34 26 3 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 29 20 6 1
Onyeka Okongwu 29 15 6 0
Jalen Johnson S 35 12 10 7
Dyson Daniels S 36 11 4 5
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 11 4 0
Vit Krejci 14 4 7 3
Clint Capela S 24 4 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Clint Capela ATL
11%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Dalton Knecht LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
27%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 24.7 7.2 9.5
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.8 11.6 4.3
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.4 10.1 6.3
4 Trae Young ATL 22.1 3.9 14.7
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 18.0 4.0 1.9
6 Dalton Knecht LAL 14.7 4.8 1.6
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.1 3.3 5.2
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.4 6.2 3.8
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 4.4 1.8
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.5 6.7 1.7
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.5 3.6 2.5
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.9 3.5 1.6
13 Clint Capela ATL 9.8 10.4 1.7
14 Max Christie LAL 7.8 2.9 1.6
15 Kobe Bufkin ATL 7.8 2.5 1.9
16 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.7 2.2 1.1
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.2 1.9 1.2
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.6 1.0 1.0
19 Cam Reddish LAL 4.5 2.1 1.0
20 David Roddy ATL 3.8 1.8 1.0
21 Armel Traore LAL 3.3 3.2 0.6
22 Vit Krejci ATL 3.2 1.4 1.1
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.1 1.5 0.7
24 Christian Koloko LAL 3.0 2.4 0.6
25 Bronny James LAL 2.1 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.