NBA games

ORL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
94–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2714183594
PHI25252131102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home PHI
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 38 30 5 5
Jalen Suggs S 33 22 1 3
Moritz Wagner 18 12 9 2
Goga Bitadze S 26 9 4 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 8 9 3
Cole Anthony 14 6 1 4
Jett Howard 16 5 1 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 2 3 2
Tristan da Silva 13 0 3 0
Anthony Black 18 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 37 21 4 9
KJ Martin 32 20 3 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 33 16 3 4
Tyrese Maxey S 35 16 2 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 13 10 0
Andre Drummond S 27 7 11 0
Jared McCain 21 7 2 2
Caleb Martin 8 2 2 1
Kyle Lowry 11 0 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Paul George makes 16-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
3 Jared McCain PHI
10%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
5 Paul George PHI
9%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
7 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 KJ Martin PHI
8%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
19%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 27.1 5.7 6.7
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 22.5 3.5 5.3
3 Jared McCain PHI 21.5 3.4 3.8
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.3 3.7 4.2
5 Paul George PHI 17.2 5.2 5.2
6 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.2 6.5 1.9
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.6 4.8 1.7
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 10.7 6.2 2.1
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.2 3.1 4.2
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.0 2.3 1.7
11 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.7 7.5 1.7
12 Caleb Martin PHI 9.6 3.8 2.0
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.7 6.8 2.0
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.4 3.3 1.4
15 KJ Martin PHI 6.5 2.7 1.1
16 Andre Drummond PHI 6.1 5.8 0.6
17 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.1 2.4 2.7
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.0 4.7 0.7
19 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.4 2.1 0.9
20 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.8 1.4 1.7
21 Cole Anthony ORL 4.6 1.6 1.2
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.8 1.9 0.8
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.1 0.9 1.0
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.2 1.2 0.5
25 Cory Joseph ORL 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.