NBA games

HOU @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
93–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2221232793
GS1831242699

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home GS
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 29 16 8 5
Dillon Brooks S 35 15 3 1
Jalen Green S 36 14 4 3
Amen Thompson 22 14 8 0
Fred VanVleet S 37 13 4 5
Reed Sheppard 13 7 3 1
Steven Adams 18 6 6 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 5 7 1
Aaron Holiday 14 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 33 33 7 2
Andrew Wiggins S 34 23 9 2
Kyle Anderson 14 8 2 2
Brandin Podziemski S 37 8 11 3
Gary Payton II 18 6 6 1
Moses Moody 23 6 1 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 21 6 0 2
Buddy Hield S 27 5 5 2
Kevon Looney S 27 4 11 3
Pat Spencer 6 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Kuminga · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Jonathan Kuminga makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Jalen Green HOU
13%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
13%
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
11%
6 Kevon Looney GS
10%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
10 Buddy Hield GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.7 10.8 6.9
2 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.6 4.4 6.4
3 Jalen Green HOU 18.9 4.9 2.9
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 17.5 4.2 2.8
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.0 4.4 2.1
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.1 3.7 2.2
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.8 6.6 1.4
8 Amen Thompson HOU 12.7 7.8 2.1
9 Buddy Hield GS 10.0 2.7 1.4
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.0 6.1 1.6
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.9 4.1 3.1
12 Moses Moody GS 5.8 2.3 0.9
13 Kevon Looney GS 5.5 6.5 1.3
14 Kyle Anderson GS 5.4 2.9 2.3
15 Lindy Waters III GS 4.8 2.4 0.9
16 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.5 1.6 1.2
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.3 1.3 1.0
18 Gary Payton II GS 3.9 2.4 0.9
19 Steven Adams HOU 3.1 2.7 1.2
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.9 2.1 0.7
21 Jock Landale HOU 2.7 2.9 0.7
22 Jeff Green HOU 2.3 0.9 0.4
23 Jack McVeigh HOU 2.1 0.8 0.4
24 Pat Spencer GS 2.1 1.3 1.2
25 Gui Santos GS 1.0 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.