NBA games

CHI @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
139–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI36373531139
SA22354027124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home SA
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 35 39 8 5
Ayo Dosunmu S 35 27 10 11
Talen Horton-Tucker 21 13 3 4
Dalen Terry 28 12 2 0
Zach LaVine S 33 11 9 9
Matas Buzelis 19 11 7 1
Julian Phillips S 28 9 3 1
Jalen Smith 12 9 3 1
Josh Giddey S 24 8 4 4
Chris Duarte 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 28 28 5 0
Devin Vassell 25 17 3 2
Jeremy Sochan S 32 16 14 2
Chris Paul S 29 12 4 9
Julian Champagnie S 25 12 3 1
Stephon Castle S 23 12 2 6
Zach Collins 24 9 4 3
Harrison Barnes S 22 8 3 0
Charles Bassey 13 5 3 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 6 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
17%
2 Stephon Castle SA
14%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
11%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
7 Chris Paul SA
9%
8 Julian Phillips CHI
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
10 Jeremy Sochan SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
31%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.8 10.1 3.8
2 Zach LaVine CHI 20.8 3.9 4.9
3 Devin Vassell SA 18.2 2.7 3.4
4 Stephon Castle SA 17.9 3.3 5.3
5 Jeremy Sochan SA 17.6 8.9 3.1
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.9 3.4 4.4
7 Harrison Barnes SA 12.9 5.6 2.1
8 Julian Champagnie SA 12.8 4.8 2.0
9 Josh Giddey CHI 12.3 6.5 6.2
10 Keldon Johnson SA 11.9 4.8 2.0
11 Chris Paul SA 11.4 3.8 8.0
12 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.7 2.0 1.3
13 Matas Buzelis CHI 6.9 2.8 0.8
14 Zach Collins SA 6.3 4.0 1.7
15 Jalen Smith CHI 5.8 4.7 1.0
16 Julian Phillips CHI 4.7 2.4 0.8
17 Malaki Branham SA 4.7 1.3 1.2
18 Blake Wesley SA 4.6 1.0 1.5
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.5 1.4 1.2
20 Torrey Craig CHI 4.4 1.6 0.5
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.2 2.9 0.6
22 Charles Bassey SA 3.5 4.3 0.7
23 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.1 1.5 0.8
24 Chris Duarte CHI 3.0 1.5 0.7
25 Jevon Carter CHI 2.7 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.