NBA games

PHX @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
124–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX33322831124
NO34204527126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home NO
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 28 4 2
Bradley Beal S 34 24 4 4
Royce O'Neale S 28 19 7 2
Grayson Allen 30 13 6 10
Tyus Jones S 28 13 5 6
Monte Morris 15 7 2 2
Bol Bol 11 6 4 0
Josh Okogie 11 6 2 2
Oso Ighodaro 20 4 2 1
Mason Plumlee S 26 4 10 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 29 7 3
CJ McCollum S 37 25 3 6
Trey Murphy III 34 19 2 2
Dejounte Murray S 35 17 5 3
Herbert Jones S 32 12 7 5
Brandon Boston 17 11 2 2
Yves Missi S 25 9 12 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 7 2 5 2
Javonte Green 17 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
2 CJ McCollum NO
11%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
6 Yves Missi NO
9%
7 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
9 Dejounte Murray NO
7%
10 Javonte Green NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
29%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.0 4.3 6.4
2 Brandon Ingram NO 23.1 5.7 6.3
3 CJ McCollum NO 20.1 4.3 3.7
4 Bradley Beal PHX 18.7 5.0 3.4
5 Trey Murphy III NO 17.8 4.9 2.8
6 Tyus Jones PHX 13.6 2.9 7.8
7 Brandon Boston NO 13.6 3.8 3.8
8 Dejounte Murray NO 13.4 5.5 5.9
9 Yves Missi NO 12.3 10.2 1.5
10 Grayson Allen PHX 12.1 3.3 1.8
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.6 4.9 2.0
12 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 9.6 6.3 1.6
13 Javonte Green NO 9.4 4.0 1.3
14 Herbert Jones NO 7.4 2.7 1.5
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.9 5.2 1.3
16 Josh Okogie PHX 6.8 2.9 0.7
17 Mason Plumlee PHX 6.6 6.8 2.1
18 Monte Morris PHX 5.7 2.0 1.4
19 Jamal Cain NO 5.1 3.1 0.8
20 Daniel Theis NO 3.7 2.7 0.9
21 Bol Bol PHX 3.5 2.4 0.7
22 Damion Lee PHX 3.2 0.7 0.7
23 Trey Jemison III NO 3.2 2.9 0.7
24 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.0 0.7 0.6
25 Karlo Matkovic NO 1.7 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.