NBA games

SAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
110–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC32302424110
MEM33302329115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MEM
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 26 3 1
Malik Monk S 32 23 1 5
De'Aaron Fox S 38 18 6 3
Domantas Sabonis S 36 17 13 6
Keegan Murray S 40 11 11 2
Isaac Jones 16 9 3 0
Kevin Huerter 25 6 6 0
Jae Crowder 13 0 3 1
Keon Ellis 2 0 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Smart 26 18 4 5
Desmond Bane S 32 18 8 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 25 15 2 2
Santi Aldama 29 15 10 0
Jake LaRavia 29 12 8 2
Jay Huff 20 11 4 1
Jaylen Wells S 18 10 6 0
Ja Morant S 28 8 3 7
Brandon Clarke S 18 4 3 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. 15 4 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Ja Morant makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
3 Ja Morant MEM
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
5 Malik Monk SAC
10%
6 Brandon Clarke MEM
10%
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
10 Desmond Bane MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
18%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.4 4.7 6.7
2 Ja Morant MEM 24.9 5.0 8.6
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.7 11.8 6.0
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.4 4.8 4.9
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.0 6.6 2.1
6 Malik Monk SAC 19.0 3.9 5.1
7 Desmond Bane MEM 13.8 6.3 4.5
8 Santi Aldama MEM 13.7 6.9 2.9
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.0 3.6 2.2
10 Keegan Murray SAC 11.3 7.2 1.6
11 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.1 3.4 4.4
12 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.6 3.6 1.9
13 Marcus Smart MEM 9.5 2.7 4.9
14 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.6 4.0 3.3
15 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.3 6.3 1.2
16 Keon Ellis SAC 7.7 2.9 1.3
17 Jay Huff MEM 7.6 2.3 1.0
18 Jae Crowder SAC 5.9 2.8 1.0
19 Isaac Jones SAC 4.8 2.7 0.5
20 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.2 1.8 1.2
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.5 1.6 0.6
22 Alex Len SAC 3.0 2.8 0.6
23 John Konchar MEM 3.0 2.5 0.8
24 Orlando Robinson SAC 2.7 1.6 0.5
25 Colby Jones SAC 2.5 1.4 0.6
26 Mason Jones SAC 2.0 1.4 1.0
27 Yuki Kawamura MEM 1.6 0.6 0.5
28 Colin Castleton MEM 1.4 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.