NBA games

OKC @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
129–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC34333230129
TOR1725232792

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home TOR
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 30 4 5
Jalen Williams S 28 20 7 2
Isaiah Joe S 21 16 4 2
Ajay Mitchell 19 13 0 3
Kenrich Williams 14 13 7 1
Aaron Wiggins 20 12 3 2
Cason Wallace 23 9 1 2
Alex Caruso 17 8 4 2
Luguentz Dort S 28 6 6 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 2 16 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Mogbo 23 17 1 1
RJ Barrett S 31 17 11 2
Gradey Dick S 23 15 1 0
Scottie Barnes S 31 12 12 8
Chris Boucher 17 10 6 0
Ja'Kobe Walter 23 6 6 2
Jamison Battle 13 6 3 2
Ochai Agbaji S 22 5 0 2
Bruno Fernando S 19 4 7 1
Davion Mitchell 24 0 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
14%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Gradey Dick TOR
11%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
34%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.3 5.0 6.7
2 RJ Barrett TOR 25.7 7.0 6.5
3 Jalen Williams OKC 24.8 5.8 5.5
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.7 9.0 7.4
5 Gradey Dick TOR 15.1 3.4 2.6
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.6 10.5 3.8
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.3 4.0 2.1
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.9 5.3 2.0
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.8 2.7 1.8
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.8 3.4 1.3
11 Cason Wallace OKC 8.1 3.7 2.4
12 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.7 2.2 3.9
13 Chris Boucher TOR 7.6 4.4 0.8
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.0 1.8 1.3
15 Jamison Battle TOR 6.0 1.8 1.0
16 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.0 3.4 1.2
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 3.1 0.9
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.5 4.0 1.4
19 Jamal Shead TOR 5.0 1.4 1.7
20 Alex Caruso OKC 4.5 2.3 1.6
21 Branden Carlson OKC 2.8 2.0 0.5
22 Bruno Fernando TOR 2.8 2.2 1.0
23 Adam Flagler OKC 2.7 1.2 0.5
24 Malevy Leons OKC 1.7 1.4 0.3
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.