NBA games

DAL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
137–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL31373435137
WSH22282724101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home WSH
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 25 25 4 3
Luka Doncic S 32 21 10 10
Daniel Gafford 19 16 7 1
Quentin Grimes 25 14 5 2
Jaden Hardy 6 13 1 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 23 12 4 2
Klay Thompson S 21 11 2 2
P.J. Washington S 24 10 7 2
Dereck Lively II S 19 6 11 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 10 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malcolm Brogdon S 25 16 5 2
Marvin Bagley III S 24 16 8 0
Bub Carrington 28 15 2 1
Alex Sarr S 27 11 8 0
Jordan Poole S 32 11 1 8
Jonas Valanciunas 13 9 5 1
Justin Champagnie 29 9 5 3
Jared Butler 19 5 0 5
Bilal Coulibaly S 29 4 4 4
Anthony Gill 8 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
16%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
4 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
10%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
9 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
8%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
45%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
5%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.4 7.5 9.1
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.3 4.8 6.4
3 Jordan Poole WSH 22.2 3.4 5.7
4 P.J. Washington DAL 17.4 9.2 3.9
5 Quentin Grimes DAL 15.1 4.6 2.9
6 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 13.8 4.5 2.9
7 Alex Sarr WSH 12.6 6.1 2.0
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.4 7.8 1.6
9 Klay Thompson DAL 12.1 3.6 2.1
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 11.6 2.7 4.7
11 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.8 7.8 1.7
12 Bub Carrington WSH 10.3 3.6 3.6
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.1 7.5 2.1
14 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.0 5.2 2.7
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.9 2.1 1.6
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.2 3.7 0.9
17 Jared Butler WSH 4.2 1.3 1.7
18 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.9 2.7 0.5
19 Anthony Gill WSH 3.7 1.6 0.6
20 Johnny Davis WSH 3.4 1.4 0.6
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 2.8 0.9
22 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.0 1.7 0.5
23 Justin Champagnie WSH 2.6 1.3 0.3
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.5 1.7 0.5
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.