NBA games

DEN @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
114–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27352527114
CLE37293624126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home CLE
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 27 20 11
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 24 7 2
Jamal Murray S 42 19 4 6
Aaron Gordon S 34 18 7 2
Russell Westbrook 16 10 3 3
Christian Braun S 39 10 4 0
Peyton Watson 18 4 4 1
Julian Strawther 12 2 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 28 3 6
Darius Garland S 33 24 0 4
Caris LeVert 27 21 3 6
Evan Mobley S 32 20 9 4
Sam Merrill 21 8 5 2
Jarrett Allen S 35 8 15 6
Dean Wade 19 5 6 1
Georges Niang 16 5 4 0
Ty Jerome 12 4 2 1
Isaac Okoro S 12 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Christian Braun DEN
11%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
8 Darius Garland CLE
9%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
25%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.0 13.4 11.9
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.3 6.9 5.1
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.2 3.4 6.9
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.5 7.1 3.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.8 10.5 3.1
6 Jamal Murray DEN 19.5 4.3 7.2
7 Christian Braun DEN 15.8 5.2 2.6
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.6 5.8 3.5
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.6 10.4 1.8
10 Ty Jerome CLE 13.9 2.5 4.3
11 Caris LeVert CLE 12.8 3.8 3.9
12 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.6 4.1 6.1
13 Peyton Watson DEN 11.9 4.3 1.6
14 Georges Niang CLE 10.4 3.7 1.6
15 Julian Strawther DEN 8.1 2.6 1.3
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.5 2.8 1.9
17 Sam Merrill CLE 6.3 2.3 1.8
18 Dean Wade CLE 6.1 3.7 1.5
19 JT Thor CLE 3.6 1.7 0.4
20 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.5 2.9 0.8
21 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.3 2.2 1.0
22 Dario Saric DEN 3.1 2.5 0.8
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.8 1.1 1.0
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.4 0.5
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 1.6 0.5
26 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.4 3.1 0.4
27 PJ Hall DEN 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.