NBA games

MIN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
10880
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33262722108
LAC1418183080

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 26 20 4 4
Anthony Edwards S 26 16 6 4
Josh Minott 21 13 8 3
Mike Conley S 20 11 3 2
Jaden McDaniels S 24 11 5 0
Luka Garza 8 10 3 0
Rudy Gobert S 29 8 9 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 8 3 3
Naz Reid 21 4 4 1
PJ Dozier 8 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bones Hyland 23 18 4 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 14 2 2
Amir Coffey S 28 12 4 2
Trentyn Flowers 14 9 4 0
Jordan Miller 24 8 4 1
Cam Christie 18 5 3 0
James Harden S 25 5 3 3
Ivica Zubac S 26 4 10 1
Kai Jones 16 3 5 1
Kris Dunn S 24 2 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 15-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
16%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
3 Julius Randle MIN
12%
4 James Harden LAC
12%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
42%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
27%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 24.4 5.7 8.9
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.1 4.8 3.9
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.3 6.6 3.8
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.5 11.6 2.8
5 Naz Reid MIN 12.7 4.5 1.7
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.9 4.3 2.2
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.9 3.1 2.6
8 Amir Coffey LAC 10.6 3.0 1.5
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.5 10.5 1.7
10 Mike Conley MIN 9.8 2.9 4.5
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.7 3.5 1.2
12 Jordan Miller LAC 8.2 2.8 1.5
13 Luka Garza MIN 7.8 3.3 0.7
14 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 7.7 2.5 3.3
15 Kris Dunn LAC 6.8 3.8 2.2
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.5 2.8 1.4
17 Mo Bamba LAC 5.5 4.1 0.8
18 Bones Hyland LAC 5.1 1.8 1.0
19 Daishen Nix MIN 4.7 1.4 1.3
20 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.8 1.5 1.2
21 Josh Minott MIN 3.7 1.6 0.6
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.0 1.6 0.6
23 PJ Dozier MIN 2.9 1.1 0.8
24 Kai Jones LAC 2.7 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.