NBA games

ATL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
119–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL38322920119
MIL35242817104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 40 23 13 5
De'Andre Hunter 28 20 5 2
Trae Young S 35 17 4 7
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 15 2 5
Onyeka Okongwu 24 13 6 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 19 12 4 0
Dyson Daniels S 31 9 2 6
Clint Capela S 24 8 17 1
Kobe Bufkin 13 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 31 11 5
Damian Lillard S 34 25 4 5
Gary Trent Jr. 31 11 3 1
Taurean Prince S 25 10 4 2
Delon Wright 12 6 2 0
Bobby Portis 18 6 5 3
AJ Green 27 6 4 4
Brook Lopez S 35 5 6 2
Andre Jackson Jr. S 11 2 1 0
Ryan Rollins 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
39%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
3 Trae Young ATL
8%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
5 Clint Capela ATL
7%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
6%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
5%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
5%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
97%
Jumper
1%
Layup
1%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.4 11.0 8.8
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.1 4.4 8.7
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.3 9.6 5.9
4 Trae Young ATL 20.8 3.6 9.5
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.6 4.1 1.8
6 Brook Lopez MIL 15.3 5.8 2.2
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.2 6.2 3.3
8 Bobby Portis MIL 13.3 6.2 2.1
9 Taurean Prince MIL 11.3 3.9 2.1
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.2 7.2 1.5
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.7 3.3 1.6
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 10.0 3.5 1.9
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.8 2.8 1.6
14 AJ Green MIL 9.5 2.9 1.5
15 Clint Capela ATL 9.4 9.9 1.4
16 Kobe Bufkin ATL 8.2 2.7 2.2
17 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.5 4.0 1.7
18 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.1 2.1 0.9
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.0 2.7 1.6
20 Delon Wright MIL 5.0 3.0 2.1
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.0 0.9
22 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.1 1.8 1.1
23 David Roddy ATL 3.5 1.8 0.9
24 Vit Krejci ATL 2.9 1.4 1.0
25 Liam Robbins MIL 2.2 1.3 0.5
26 Stanley Umude MIL 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.