NBA games

ORL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
106–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL34192429106
PHI22312425102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home PHI
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 36 35 7 2
Jalen Suggs S 37 17 2 6
Jonathan Isaac 15 14 4 0
Moritz Wagner 21 10 6 1
Anthony Black 30 10 5 7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 7 2 1
Goga Bitadze S 21 6 6 1
Tristan da Silva 16 5 4 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 2 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared McCain S 39 24 7 3
Tyrese Maxey S 38 16 4 6
Guerschon Yabusele S 37 15 7 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 15 4 5
KJ Martin S 29 11 4 0
Caleb Martin 23 9 5 2
Ricky Council IV 18 9 0 1
Reggie Jackson 6 3 1 2
Adem Bona 14 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
KJ Martin · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:26 Q1
"KJ Martin makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
17%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
6 KJ Martin PHI
9%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
29%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 26.3 5.9 7.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.4 3.4 5.3
3 Jared McCain PHI 20.7 3.3 3.8
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.8 3.8 3.7
5 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.4 6.2 2.0
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.6 2.7 1.7
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.5 5.2 1.4
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 10.2 6.2 1.8
9 Caleb Martin PHI 10.1 3.7 2.3
10 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.9 8.2 1.7
11 Anthony Black ORL 9.8 2.8 3.7
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.0 7.4 2.1
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.6 3.3 1.5
14 KJ Martin PHI 6.3 2.6 1.0
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.0 5.2 0.7
16 Cole Anthony ORL 4.7 1.7 1.2
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.7 2.0 0.8
18 Jett Howard ORL 4.0 2.0 0.8
19 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.4 0.9 1.6
20 Eric Gordon PHI 3.2 1.0 1.0
21 Justin Edwards PHI 2.9 1.2 0.4
22 Adem Bona PHI 2.7 2.2 0.5
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.3 1.3 0.5
24 Cory Joseph ORL 1.6 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.