NBA games

LAL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
93–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2626202193
MIA34353629134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIA
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 29 29 5 8
Rui Hachimura S 26 14 3 1
D'Angelo Russell S 30 12 1 4
Max Christie 26 11 7 5
Gabe Vincent 24 9 2 3
Anthony Davis S 31 8 7 5
Armel Traore 13 4 5 0
Christian Koloko 13 4 4 0
Dalton Knecht S 23 2 2 1
Cam Reddish 15 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 27 31 5 4
Jimmy Butler III S 29 17 9 5
Terry Rozier 25 16 2 2
Bam Adebayo S 25 14 10 7
Haywood Highsmith S 30 14 2 3
Kevin Love 15 10 4 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 17 9 4 1
Thomas Bryant 9 8 4 0
Duncan Robinson S 27 7 3 6
Pelle Larsson 19 5 4 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"LeBron James makes driving layup (Dalton Knecht assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
17%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
8%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Dalton Knecht LAL
6%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
8%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 25.1 11.9 3.9
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.0 4.8 5.2
3 LeBron James LAL 21.5 8.1 9.0
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.0 5.3 4.7
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.9 10.2 6.0
6 Dalton Knecht LAL 14.6 4.7 1.5
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.9 3.3 4.9
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.3 3.0 2.7
9 Terry Rozier MIA 12.3 3.1 2.5
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.6 4.4 1.8
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.6 4.5 2.5
12 Max Christie LAL 7.6 2.6 1.3
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.6 3.5 1.5
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.8 2.3 1.1
15 Alec Burks MIA 5.5 2.2 1.4
16 Kevin Love MIA 5.3 4.5 1.0
17 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.1 2.0 0.9
18 Cam Reddish LAL 5.0 2.2 0.8
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.8 1.8 1.1
20 Dru Smith MIA 4.8 2.8 1.8
21 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.8 2.6 0.8
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.4 3.0 0.9
23 Josh Richardson MIA 4.0 1.3 1.2
24 Armel Traore LAL 3.2 2.9 0.5
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.1 1.7 0.7
26 Christian Koloko LAL 3.1 2.4 0.5
27 Bronny James LAL 1.9 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.