NBA games

IND @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
90–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND1718352090
BKN2427242499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BKN
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 17 3 8
T.J. McConnell 28 14 2 2
Pascal Siakam S 37 14 6 0
Obi Toppin 24 13 5 2
Johnny Furphy 25 12 7 0
Myles Turner S 31 11 7 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 32 8 4 2
Jarace Walker 14 1 3 2
Enrique Freeman 3 0 0 0
Quenton Jackson S 8 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 35 26 7 1
Nic Claxton S 25 16 8 2
Shake Milton 28 15 3 4
Jalen Wilson S 38 11 3 3
Trendon Watford 21 9 3 0
Ben Simmons 21 7 7 9
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 7 6 1
Dennis Schroder S 31 4 1 2
Keon Johnson S 23 4 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes pullup jump shot (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
7 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Keon Johnson BKN
6%
10 Jalen Wilson BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
17%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 22.9 6.3 4.0
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.4 3.5 8.6
3 Dennis Schroder BKN 19.9 3.7 6.7
4 Cameron Johnson BKN 19.2 4.5 3.7
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 19.1 6.7 2.4
6 Myles Turner IND 15.9 7.9 1.9
7 T.J. McConnell IND 11.7 3.8 4.1
8 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.7 3.8 1.5
9 Nic Claxton BKN 10.4 7.9 2.3
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.6 2.5 4.5
11 Trendon Watford BKN 9.4 3.6 1.7
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.2 4.1 1.7
13 Shake Milton BKN 9.0 2.3 3.1
14 Quenton Jackson IND 8.1 2.6 2.1
15 Keon Johnson BKN 7.5 3.1 1.5
16 Ben Simmons BKN 7.1 5.5 6.3
17 Jarace Walker IND 6.7 3.8 1.9
18 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.0 2.2 1.1
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.6 2.3 1.3
20 Dariq Whitehead BKN 4.5 1.7 0.7
21 Moses Brown IND 3.9 2.0 0.6
22 Tristen Newton IND 3.6 1.2 1.8
23 Johnny Furphy IND 3.4 1.6 0.7
24 Enrique Freeman IND 2.9 1.5 0.7
25 Yongxi Cui BKN 2.6 1.2 0.6
26 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.