NBA games

DET @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
120–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET24343032120
BOS39333127130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BOS
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 31 27 3 2
Cade Cunningham S 34 27 9 14
Malik Beasley 33 23 4 1
Marcus Sasser 19 12 2 2
Jaden Ivey S 24 11 2 2
Ronald Holland II 16 7 2 3
Jalen Duren S 25 5 5 2
Simone Fontecchio 11 4 2 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 25 2 3 0
Isaiah Stewart 22 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 39 28 6 9
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 26 9 2
Sam Hauser S 31 20 3 0
Payton Pritchard 34 19 5 4
Derrick White S 38 14 4 11
Al Horford S 30 14 4 3
Luke Kornet 21 9 8 1
Xavier Tillman 8 0 2 0
Drew Peterson 3 0 1 0
Jordan Walsh 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
9%
6 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
7 Al Horford BOS
7%
8 Tobias Harris DET
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
45%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.3 7.4 10.6
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.5 5.7 5.0
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.6 7.3 2.2
4 Jaden Ivey DET 19.3 3.8 5.4
5 Derrick White BOS 18.0 4.8 5.1
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.1 3.9 3.2
7 Malik Beasley DET 15.9 3.4 2.2
8 Tobias Harris DET 12.9 6.1 2.3
9 Al Horford BOS 10.5 5.3 2.1
10 Jalen Duren DET 10.1 8.4 1.8
11 Sam Hauser BOS 8.0 2.9 1.2
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 7.9 2.4 1.4
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.9 5.3 1.7
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.8 2.7 1.2
15 Marcus Sasser DET 6.7 1.7 1.7
16 Neemias Queta BOS 6.2 5.6 1.1
17 Drew Peterson BOS 6.0 2.4 0.8
18 Ronald Holland II DET 5.8 3.4 1.0
19 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.8 3.5 1.1
20 Luke Kornet BOS 5.5 4.2 1.4
21 Paul Reed DET 5.0 2.5 0.7
22 Cole Swider DET 4.0 2.1 0.6
23 Alondes Williams DET 3.2 1.3 1.9
24 Jaden Springer BOS 3.0 1.2 0.8
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.0 1.6 0.7
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.7 1.7 0.6
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.5 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.