NBA games

LAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
80–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2024201680
MIN22342330109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIN
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 34 20 3 5
Anthony Davis S 33 12 11 5
LeBron James S 31 10 8 4
Rui Hachimura S 29 10 4 2
Dalton Knecht S 28 6 3 0
Max Christie 21 5 2 1
Gabe Vincent 22 5 1 0
Maxwell Lewis 8 4 1 2
Armel Traore 15 4 3 0
Christian Koloko 8 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 24 18 5 3
Rudy Gobert S 32 17 12 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 26 15 0 4
Naz Reid 28 15 2 2
Donte DiVincenzo 28 11 5 9
Mike Conley S 22 9 3 6
Anthony Edwards S 27 8 7 3
Luka Garza 6 6 0 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 6 5 1 0
Jaden McDaniels S 23 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes two point shot (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
17%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Dalton Knecht LAL
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
7%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Gabe Vincent LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
9%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 25.6 11.6 3.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.8 4.9 4.5
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.6 6.9 4.3
4 LeBron James LAL 22.5 8.4 9.0
5 Dalton Knecht LAL 16.5 4.8 1.6
6 Naz Reid MIN 13.2 4.6 1.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.2 4.9 2.3
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.0 3.1 4.2
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.1 3.3 2.5
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.3 4.4 1.6
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.3 10.0 1.8
12 Mike Conley MIN 10.3 3.0 4.6
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 8.0 2.7 2.9
14 Luka Garza MIN 6.9 2.9 0.5
15 Max Christie LAL 6.8 2.5 1.1
16 Daishen Nix MIN 6.5 1.7 1.4
17 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.4 2.2 2.9
18 Cam Reddish LAL 5.2 2.5 0.9
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.5 1.7 0.8
20 Josh Minott MIN 3.2 1.6 0.5
21 Armel Traore LAL 3.1 2.8 0.4
22 Christian Koloko LAL 2.9 2.1 0.5
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.8 1.1 0.9
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.0 1.0 0.3
25 PJ Dozier MIN 2.0 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.