NBA games

BKN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
102–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN29212230102
CHI29273636128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home CHI
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dariq Whitehead 24 18 2 1
Dennis Schroder S 29 16 2 10
Tyrese Martin S 33 15 5 2
Shake Milton 35 14 6 5
Trendon Watford 17 12 5 1
Nic Claxton S 24 11 8 0
Keon Johnson S 30 8 3 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 16 4 2 2
Yongxi Cui 6 2 2 0
Jalen Wilson S 26 2 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 28 21 10 3
Josh Giddey S 32 20 13 11
Matas Buzelis 22 20 5 1
Zach LaVine S 26 18 0 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 30 16 2 6
Talen Horton-Tucker 17 11 4 2
Jalen Smith 15 8 5 0
Julian Phillips S 26 5 5 2
Lonzo Ball 13 5 3 2
Dalen Terry 18 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 1-foot driving dunk (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dennis Schroder BKN
15%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
14%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
12%
4 Cameron Johnson BKN
12%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
8 Jalen Wilson BKN
8%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
10 Tyrese Martin BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 22.8 4.3 5.2
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.5 10.1 3.9
3 Dennis Schroder BKN 20.1 3.8 6.6
4 Cameron Johnson BKN 19.5 4.5 3.8
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.4 3.4 4.5
6 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.9 3.8 1.7
7 Josh Giddey CHI 10.9 5.3 6.0
8 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.7 3.7 1.7
9 Nic Claxton BKN 10.3 7.9 2.8
10 Trendon Watford BKN 9.2 3.6 1.8
11 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.8 1.8 1.4
12 Shake Milton BKN 7.6 2.0 2.6
13 Keon Johnson BKN 7.4 3.3 1.5
14 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.5 2.2 2.9
15 Jalen Smith CHI 6.0 4.7 1.1
16 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.7 2.3 1.1
17 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.6 2.7 0.7
18 Torrey Craig CHI 4.9 1.8 0.7
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.5 2.3 0.8
20 Dalen Terry CHI 4.5 1.3 1.2
21 Dariq Whitehead BKN 3.7 1.4 0.7
22 E.J. Liddell CHI 2.9 1.3 0.5
23 Jevon Carter CHI 2.8 0.9 0.7
24 Chris Duarte CHI 2.7 0.9 0.5
25 Yongxi Cui BKN 2.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.