NBA games

MIA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
89–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2520182689
BOS28322523108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BOS
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 35 19 5 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 36 19 10 3
Bam Adebayo S 33 15 8 5
Haywood Highsmith S 35 10 4 5
Dru Smith 21 8 4 2
Duncan Robinson S 20 5 3 3
Pelle Larsson 12 5 5 1
Terry Rozier 22 4 3 1
Thomas Bryant 10 2 2 0
Keshad Johnson 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 31 29 7 4
Payton Pritchard 33 25 5 4
Derrick White S 31 19 6 8
Jayson Tatum S 36 18 11 4
Drew Peterson 26 7 7 1
Luke Kornet S 27 6 4 3
Neemias Queta 15 4 7 0
Xavier Tillman 11 0 2 0
Jaden Springer 3 0 0 0
Jordan Walsh S 13 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Haywood Highsmith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
19%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
16%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
7 Derrick White BOS
7%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
5%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
5%
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
9%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.8 10.0 6.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.3 5.6 5.2
3 Tyler Herro MIA 23.5 5.2 5.0
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.7 5.2 4.5
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.0 7.3 2.3
6 Derrick White BOS 17.9 5.0 4.9
7 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.4 10.2 5.8
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.5 3.5 3.1
9 Terry Rozier MIA 12.3 3.3 2.9
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.1 2.9 2.5
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.5 4.4 2.1
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.0 3.4 1.2
13 Neemias Queta BOS 6.8 6.0 1.3
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.0 2.1 1.1
15 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.6 2.3 1.0
16 Kevin Love MIA 5.6 4.5 1.0
17 Alec Burks MIA 5.4 2.2 1.4
18 Drew Peterson BOS 5.3 2.1 0.8
19 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 4.4 1.2
20 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.9 2.7 0.8
21 Josh Richardson MIA 3.7 1.2 1.1
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.0 2.2 0.5
23 Dru Smith MIA 3.0 1.7 1.3
24 JD Davison BOS 2.9 0.8 1.1
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.0 0.8 0.7
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.9 1.1 0.4
27 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.9 1.1 0.4
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.3 1.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.